The Bayrou phenomenon in the French electoral campaign

"Although François Bayrou is profiting from his rivals' weakness he hasn't won the battle yet," writes Stefan Brändle. "By demonstrating a preference for Bayrou in the most recent polls, the French are making it clear that they alone want to decide who will be the future ruler of the Elysée Palace, rather than leaving it to the parties or the media - which had hedged their bets on a 'Ségo' - 'Sarko' showdown. The intractable French are following a similar impulse to that which sent right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen into the runoff vote in 2002 - basically because they didn't like prospect of the Chirac vs. Jospin scenario. This raises the question of whether there might not be four instead of three major rivals. Is it not feasible that Sarkozy and Bayrou could neutralise each other to such an extent that at the end of April Le Pen makes it into the second round again? Le Pen is always at his strongest when the other candidates ignore the people with all their politicising."

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