Montenegro to vote on independence

Michael Martens explains why the outcome of next Sunday's referendum on Montenegro's independence remains wholly uncertain: "Although it's taken for granted that a relative majority will vote for independence on Sunday, the advocates of state independence need the votes of both the Muslim Bosnians and the partly Muslim, partly Catholic Albanians because the EU managed to push through a quorum of 55 percent of the votes." Martens points out that the great majority of Bosnians and Albanians, who make up 17 percent of the country's population, support independence from Serbia. "However, as far as the majority is concerned, the mood is not as clear-cut. Many see themselves as both Montenegrins and Serbs... Particularly among Montenegrins living in Serbia, the prevalent attitude is that although not all Serbs are are Montenegrins, all Montenegrins are Serbs."

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