Main focus of Monday, April 30, 2007

The Turkish army is raising its tone

On Friday, April 27th, the Turkish army threatened the government run by the moderate Islamist AKP party (the justice and development party) with intervening to protect the founding secular principles of this country. This warning comes just as Parliament is trying to name Turkey's new president. A single candidate is being disputed, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah Gül (AKP).

Frankfurter Rundschau - Germany

Gerd Höhler takes the threat of a military coup in Turkey seriously. "Turkey's pro-Western orientation was one of the basic tenets of the founder of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, whose legacy the generals claim they want to preserve. But this pro-Western stance was always defined more in terms of transatlantic relations than relations with Europe. If they had to make the choice most Turkish soldiers wouldn't hesitate to decide against the EU and in favour of their 'military democracy'. ... So will the tanks roll into Ankara, as they last did in 1980? This is highly unlikely because the generals long ago 'refined' their repertoire of political interventions, as their ultimatum moves. The fact that it wasn't delivered in the form of a confidential document but was published on the Internet for all the world to read is meant to emphasise their point. The deposition of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan in 1997 made it clear that it's not necessary for tanks to start rolling in; the mere threat of a coup will suffice." (30/04/2007)

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Der Standard - Austria

Markus Bernath doubts there will be an 'open coup' in Turkey. "However, the anti-Turkish faction here in Austria and elsewhere in the EU, which yesterday was conjuring up the spectre of an Islamist-led grab for power in Turkey and today is conjuring up the image of a sinister junta in an attempt to disrupt the accession talks with the EU, has overlooked one thing. In the medium term Turkey's serious domestic crisis holds more positive than negative potential. ... The power struggle between national secularists and Islamic conservatives offers a fresh opportunity to free Turkey from outdated schools of thought - the false images of an Islamic republic led by imams or a nationalist authoritarian republic under the generals. New elections would be the logical solution. Erdogan's AKP could then demonstrate how much support it really has in Turkey." (30/04/2007)

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The Guardian - United Kingdom

"The Istanbul rally called for three things: no sharia law, no coup d'etat and a fully democratic Turkey. Yet Turkey's ability to keep all three is uncertain", notes the daily. "The presidency embodies the secularist and westernising legacy of the state's founder Kemal Ataturk. ... Mr Gul's nomination nevertheless directly challenges the Kemalist settlement. He is religiously and socially conservative. ... Still, Mr Gul has said all the right things about defending the constitution and respecting its founding principles. It may yet be possible, with restraint on all sides, for an Islamist to occupy the presidency without rupturing the Kemalist tradition. Turkey is not, in truth, as polarised a society as the current crisis suggests. Yet no one should doubt that the stakes are enormous. The secularist army has intervened in the past and clearly may do so again." (30/04/2007)

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La Vanguardia - Spain

The American analyst Edward Nicolae Luttwak denounces the AKP's European strategy. "The thrust given to Turkeys's candidadcy for EU accession is the AKP's most strategic trickery. The declared goal is the acceleration of growth to take the current GDP per inhabitant, which is 9,000 dollars, up to 30,000 dollars, the average European GDP per inhabitant. Turkey still has a lot to do before reaching this goal. In addition, the EU has laid down an essential condition: that the political authority of the armed forces be abrogated. This is music to the ears of the AKP given the fact these forces represent the main barrier for Islamisation." (30/04/2007)

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NRC Handelsblad - Netherlands

Bernard Bouwman considers that "Turkey is more divided than ever. It does indeed seem that there are now two tendencies. Secular Turks consider Erdogan and Gül are wolves disguised as lambs who, according to them, want to turn Turkey into a theocracy. The AKP supporters point out that the elections have conformed to the principles of democracy and that according to constitutional rules, Gül should become president. The secular Turks, the country's elite, have always governed the Republic and cannot now accept that power will fall into the hands of the 'people' (Erdogan and his followers, that is). Previously all Turks, religious or not, believed that Turkey would be a better place if it were to become a member of the EU. Today, few people in Turkey still believe in the country's European candidacy and the old dividing lines are resurfacing." (30/04/2007)

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