"There are good reasons not to fear $100 oil and even a case for mild celebration", notes Gerard Baker. "This time [compared to the 1970s crisis] the principal reason for rising prices is less to do with supply than with demand. For all the talk of imminent global recession, 2007 was another bumper year. The continuing advance of China and emerging markets, solid growth in the US and a sprightly performance by those old laggards Europe and Japan meant that available oil production could not keep pace with demand. Now, of course, the rising price is the mechanism by which that demand will be restrained a little - but that is no reason to think a slump is on the cards. ... Another good reason for mild optimism today is simply that our policymakers have already lived through the experience of the 1970s and know what to do to avoid repeating it. ... The third good reason for suppressing our misery at $100 oil is that we are much less dependent on that baleful commodity than we were." (04/01/2008)

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The editorialist Pierre Veya considers that this is not a question of a "classic petrol shock, but it could become one if it were to last several months and exceed 110 or 120 dollars a barrel. This may seem like very little on the surface, but it is the little grain of sand that could trigger an inflationist spiral and stymie global growth. ... A highly inflammable cocktail is being concocted by the feeble dollar, a risk of an American recession and political crises in the heart of and on the borders of petrol-producing countries. ... The skyrocketing prices of raw energy should therefore not be interpreted as the benign symptom of a critical global situation, but rather as an alarm bell. The world of raw energy is versatile, opaque, dangerous even, and should incite us to swiftly rid ourselves of too great a dependence on the strongest raw energy of all, i.e. petrol." (04/01/2008)

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Martin Kugler considers the consequences of "oil shock." "First of all, we have to make better use of the available fossil fuels. The keyword is efficiency – and it's been pronounced already by energy producers and politicians. Everyone benefits from greater efficiency (except for energy suppliers). Even international politics would look completely different if efficiency were taken seriously. ... Simultaneously, there must be a mandatory search for alternatives. These days there are dozens of new ideas, new approaches, new technologies. It takes a long time to execute them – we have to start immediately. Undoubtedly, we will need all possible technologies to be able to satisfy the world's hunger for energy. And that regardless of the price of oil." (04/01/2008)

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Neither speculation on the energy market nor "geopolitical distortions" were primarily responsible for pushing oil prices sky high, says Manfred Kriener. "Oil providers are having trouble keeping up with rising demand. This assessment is now also shared by the conservative International Energy Agency, the most important energy address for states in the OECD. ... It's high time to pronounce a word that economists avoid the way the devil avoids evening prayers: 'Finiteness!'... Delivery cannot be increased arbitrarily. It stands close to its high-point – the infamous peak – and it will drop after 2010. The world is not prepared for this eventuality. Oil prices will climb to 200 dollars - a number that seems just as inconceivable to us today as 100 dollars seemed twelve months ago. " (04/01/2008)

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In a Project Syndicate article, Raju G.C. Thomas, emeritus professor at Marquette University and a former US Fulbright professor at the University of Belgrade, opposes Kosovo Independence. "Serbia's claim to Kosovo is, to Serbs, far stronger than Russia's claim to Chechnya, China's to Xinjiang, India's to Kashmir (a claim still disputed by Pakistan), and the Philippines' to the island of Mindanao. All of these are provinces with Muslim majority populations that are part of non-Muslim majority states. But Russia, China, and India are big states and will not tolerate any detachment of their territories. So there is no serious international effort to force them to do so. The Philippines has effectively lost control of Mindanao, just as Serbia has lost control of Kosovo, yet no one has recognised Mindanao's unilateral declaration of independence. So why should Kosovo's declaration be accepted? ... To allow Kosovo's independence would demonstrate that violent secessionism works." (03/01/2008)

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Matthew Taylor, head of The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), considers that "a dangerous gap exists between our personal experience, which is mainly happy, and our view of a society in decline. ... That people whose beliefs imply optimism seem to spend most of their time wallowing in pessimism is one reason that leftists sometimes lack personal credibility (another reason being that egalitarians so clearly enjoy being very well-off). But miserable idealists need to make a New Year resolution to look on the bright side. Pessimism is becoming an impediment to progressive politics. ... It is pessimism of a particular and pernicious kind. People are not generally negative about their own lives." (03/01/2008)

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Sweden may work with NATO in Afghanistan or Kosovo, but it's not a member. Now, Christian Democratic politician Else-Marie Lindgren is urging Sweden's defence council to put NATO membership on the table. Defence Minister Sten Tolgfors has turned her down. The paper comments: "Everyone knows that NATO membership is not in fashion. But the refusal to weigh the pros and cons is pure idiocy, and reveals an embarrassingly anti-intellectual stance. Everyone knows that the majority of the people are against NATO. So it's politically easy to remain silent and pretend the matter lacks currency. … But in Finland, where attitudes toward NATO are certainly no warmer than in Sweden, the issue is discussed in such a way that does not a priori close the door to membership. Developments in Russia could lead Finland to decide in favour of NATO. And then we would be left out in the cold." (04/01/2008)

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More from the press review on the subject » Security Policy / Crises / War, » Finland, » Sweden, » Russia

Though Slovenia now holds the EU-council presidency, Europeans already are looking toward French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country takes the reins in July, says Radek Honzák: "There's not one aspect of European policy that escapes hyperactive Sarkozy. His iron is in every fire, whether in the domestic market, energy policy, immigration policy, finance reform, the agriculture or defence policy. ... The other countries look upon this with a mixture of fear and relief. ... Sarkozy will be the strongest of the leading politicians from the major EU countries. For British leader Gordon Brown, Europe has become a secondary matter; Germany's Angela Merkel will bee weakened by tensions in her governing coalition, ahead of the 2009 elections; and Italian leader Romano Prodi is preoccupied with local problems. Sarkozy will also get a boost from the fact that his EU presidency is sandwiched between that of two inexperienced EU member states: on one side is Slovenia, and on the other, the Czech Republic." (04/01/2008)

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Several thousands of tons of rubbish are currently piling up on the streets of Naples and its outskirts, notably because of malfunctioning waste disposal centres. Numerous fires have been lit by exasperated inhabitants. "Hope that we might be able to govern our South without resorting to force has been buried beneath the rubbish on the streets of Naples. ... Also lost is the illusion that good technicians, honest civil servants and competent left wing administrators could succeed where others had failed", despairs the editorialist Francesco Marlo. "The rubbish of Naples is endangering Italian democracy. The government must impose a logistical solution with force, with emergency laws, with the army." (04/01/2008)

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Russian energy concern Gazprom wants to buy the Serbian oil monopoly NIS. Hungarian journalist Endre Aczél comments: "You can't escape Gazprom any more. This group has unlimited access to the South Stream pipeline and could now gain a foothold in the west Balkans, with the promise of a stable gas supply for Serbia (and the Bosnian-Serbian republic!). And all that from a strong position, with no competitive negotiations. In this way Gazprom could thwart the plans of those who hope for Serbia's entry into the EU. Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope that South Stream might not be financed exclusively by Gazprom: Italian energy giant ENI is also in the game." (03/01/2008)

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All available articles from » Endre Aczél

As legislative elections are to be held in Spain on March 9th, 2008, Javier Redondo, professor of political sciences, analyses the role played by Internet in this vote. "During this long pre-campaign phase, politicians have stormed the Internet. This is not because they think that cyberspace allows decisive votes to be cast, but because it is imperative in modern times. You have to be up to date, to be 'in', and this means being online. ... In terms of quantity, a tool such as [the social utility] facebook will not fill ballot boxes. But it has become indispensable if you don't want to come across as a caveman. ... This is one of the obligations of the decade of political showmanship, one of the principles of which is to campaign non-stop." (04/01/2008)

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The exploitation of immigrant workers in the UK is the subject treated by British film-maker Ken Loach in his latest film, 'It's a Free World'. Interviewed by Frédéric Théobold, he evokes how powerless film-makers feel. "You have to be naïve to think that a film can oppose the economic forces that govern the planet. My answer for people who ask me what is to be done is, join trade-unions and get immigrant workers to do the same. If, as a film-maker, I am powerless, the working class, by contrast, can weigh upon which way the world goes. This is because without the working class, the economy will come to a stand-still. ... This being said, the system is like a crazy machine that nobody can control anymore. ... How to stop this machine before it destroys the planet? For the first time in the history of humanity, this destruction is not only possible, but probable." (03/01/2008)

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Mihai Maci, lecturer at University of Oradea, reports on the change at universities since the end of communism. Numerous private universities have been born, and tuition fees have been introduced. "How does one make the leap from socialist law to European Community Law, from the theory of a planned economy to marketing strategies, from the literature of Gorky to the works of Jorge Luis Borges? Overnight, the universities had new staff: doctors and engineers who had never worked before as lecturers; teachers and former party cadres turned into lecturers on philosophy, psychology, sociology and political science. Jobs were created for husbands, sons-in-law, godchildren or neighbours. … Today, the universities are a good business: Here, the children who would catch a cold in the chill air of the marketplace find a cosy lodging, a leg-up." (04/01/2008)

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Karen Kruger asks Austrian author Barbara Frischmuth about the Alevi faith, following protests against an episode in a German TV crime series that dealt with sexual abuse in an Alevi family. Alevis in Germany complain that the TV episode caters to a common Turkish prejudice that Alevis indulge in incest. "For many Alevis, the moment may have arrived to openly discuss their faith. They point to prejudices that remain very much alive in Turkey. ... On one hand, Turkish intellectuals are increasingly interested in Alevi culture. Because the Alevi model of religion is non-western, and yet has revealed itself at the same time as much more compatible with modernity than that of Sunni Islam. Many Turks are suddenly discovering their own Alevi roots. On the other hand, conflicts continue with orthodox Muslims. The Alevis are very disappointed in Turkey." (04/01/2008)

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