UK Edition
Good things come to those who wait. Theresa May’s excellent speech on Brexit was months in the making, but that time was well spent. Mrs May voted Remain, and needed time to think through all of the issues with experts, civil servants and her Cabinet before deciding exactly how to proceed. It is greatly to her credit that she has now developed such a clear and radical vision of a thriving post-Brexit Britain. Her optimistic global outlook – reminiscent of the upbeat, positive spirit of the Vote Leave campaign – will stand Britain in good stead in the negotiations to come. Her enthusiastic belief in Britain’s potential to be even greater satisfies the demand for a clear sense of direction; this was real leadership, of the sort we see all too rarely. It is no exaggeration to describe this speech as a defining moment in British politics, one that will one day be remembered in the same light as Lady Thatcher’s famous Bruges address, which launched the modern Eurosceptic movement.
The Prime Minister has a plan, and it is the right one: we will leave the single market and, in effect, the customs union, cooperate closely with our European allies on a range of issues and seek to be the world leader in free trade. We will remain a pro-immigration society but will choose who we want to move here. The plan represents a masterclass in common sense and is exactly what Britain voted for last June. Mrs May’s plan deserves support and will surely get it from most reasonable people. That is because it is rooted in confidence. Confidence about Britain and its prospects in a global economy. Confidence in this country’s ability to grow and prosper regardless of how EU negotiations conclude – crucially, the Prime Minister is willing to walk away from a bad deal and understands the strength of our bargaining position, unlike David Cameron.
Some will carp that Mrs May’s vision for a post-Brexit relationship with the EU is too optimistic, that her suggestions about access to the single market for key industries and a new customs-free deal amount to hoping to have our cake and eat it. In fact, Mrs May’s approach is absolutely right: global Britain should seek the freest possible trade with Europe while remaining free to strike trade deals with other economies, not least the US.
The plan is ambitious, and all the better for it. The doubters underestimate the strength of Britain’s hand. She was right to observe that trade makes everyone richer, so a sensible EU will seek the deal that allows the greatest possible trade between the EU and Britain. Yet Britain is more than a first-rank economy and trading partner. We are a first-rank military power and a world leader in intelligence. Those capabilities are of crucial importance to the EU, and its eastern members in particular, in a world where Donald Trump regrettably calls the Nato alliance into question. Mrs May was not so crude as to directly link British cooperation on security to Brexit negotiations, but security must be a dimension in those talks.
In time, EU leaders who bluster about punishing Britain for leaving will come to realise that it is in everyone’s interests to take a more constructive approach. Mrs May did not say it explicitly, but there was steel behind her words: Britain can be a good friend to the EU, or a bad enemy. And the EU today needs all the friends it can get.
As a result, the chances of a good deal with the EU are higher than many observers suggest, especially ones who work in financial markets. Recent days have once again proved that currency traders are poor analysts of the Brexit story: markets were surprised that Mrs May rejected remaining in the single market even though that was the only logical outcome of the referendum vote, then surprised again when she promised a vote in Parliament on the final Brexit deal. A jump in the pound after the speech suggests traders believe that vote could yet block or slow Brexit, a mistaken conclusion, not least since Mrs May will offer MPs a choice between her deal or no deal, leaving the EU without a trade agreement other, of course, than our membership of the World Trade Organisation. And either outcome will be much better for Britain than the markets’ mistaken pessimism suggests.
That pessimism can also be found in the House of Commons, where some MPs continue to look for excuses to impede the Brexit process and frustrate the instruction voters delivered in the referendum. Those MPs can no longer say that Mrs May has no plan for Brexit. Claims that the Government has “no mandate” to leave the single market were always flimsy but now collapse outright: Mrs May’s plan would deliver the best market access for those British businesses that need it, leaving those that do not operate in the EU free of EU regulation; if she does decide to walk away, it will be because Europe, not the UK, decided to indulge in childish protectionism and nativism. That pledge to put the final deal to Parliament also invalidates claims that Mrs May is ignoring MPs.
The obstructionist arguments are falling away one by one. Should the Supreme Court rule that Mrs May must consult Parliament before invoking Article 50, there can now be no justification for either MPs or peers standing in her way. Doubtless some diehard Remainers in Parliament will attempt legislative sabotage none the less, but they should pay careful attention to public opinion. Mrs May is the popular leader of a popular government, dedicated to the popular policy of leaving the EU. Her plan to deliver Brexit will no doubt increase that popularity still further. She may have taken her time about it, but she is doing what Britain wants, and doing it boldly. She deserves to succeed.
Theresa May's Brexit plan is bold and ambitious – and it deserves to succeed