The Conservative Party may be destroyed by this European madness

Perhaps it had to be this way. The internal Tory tensions over Europe are, after all, the reason why we are having this referendum at all. Had Mr Cameron not feared fear that more of his party’s supporters – and a quite a few of his MPs – would defect to Ukip then this campaign would not be happening. We would be enjoying the spring sunshine and looking forward to a summer of celebrations for the Queen’s 90th birthday, Shakespeare and European championship football, while continuing to moan about the EU. 

We should be thankful for the chance to vote about our future; yet far from resembling “a great moment of patriotic renewal”, as Michael Gove called it, it sometimes feels like we are trapped inside the tortured mind of a party that has been wrestling with its demons for many years and has now succumbed to madness. How else do we explain the extraordinary spectacle of the Chancellor of the Exchequer accusing his fellow Cabinet ministers – and even a couple of his illustrious predecessors – of economic illiteracy? 

By the same token, the very same people who have been happily supporting his various Budgets are now denouncing the economic forecasts on which they were based. Why, they say, should we take seriously this absurd Treasury document predicting penury and privation were we to leave the EU when all the predictions made in the Autumn Statement only last November had to be torn up by the time of the Budget in March?  On that basis, why should we trust the Chancellor’s strategy at all? And it is not his opponents who are saying this, let’s remember, but his own colleagues. John Redwood said the Treasury’s judgment should not be trusted and Bernard Jenkin told the Chancellor he “should be ashamed of himself.”

The Tory Party has always been a broad church, a coalition if you will; but this conflict is pushing latitude to breaking point because it is both personal and ideological. So many bridges are being burned in Downing Street’s scorched-earth pursuit of victory at all costs that it is hard to see a clear path back to harmony when it is over.

If Britain votes to Leave, can Mr Cameron survive? When he was asked this question in the Commons last week, he was adamant that he was staying put; and what else could he say? Even to hint that he would step down would be an invitation to voters to turn the referendum into a plebiscite on his premiership. But Kenneth Clarke was surely right when he said Mr Cameron would not last 30 seconds if he lost. 

Oddly enough, it is the Leavers who are most insistent that Mr Cameron should hang on as Prime Minister because they must avoid the appearance of outright disloyalty. Chris Grayling said: “I want him to stay …. He is the right man to take us out of the European Union”. David Davis said Mr Cameron should remain as PM – but step aside from the negotiations to take Britain out. Neither of these scenarios is remotely likely. It might have been feasible had the Prime Minister not taken such a hands-on role in the campaign. But he has, and will have to live with the consequences, whatever the result.

For the Conservatives, it would be much more clear-cut if the country did vote to leave. The nation would have spoken. Mr Cameron would have to resign and Mr Osborne, too. A new leader could be elected and the party – most of which is Eurosceptic – could rally behind him or her. As if anticipating such a possibility, it is noticeable how quiet the rest of the Cabinet have been even though they are ostensibly supporting Remain.  In other words, this is essentially a fight between the Tory outers and Downing Street.

It would be relatively simple, if bloody, to chop off the head should the former win on June 23, and pledge loyalty to a new leader – who would not necessarily have to be a militant Eurosceptic, just someone who has not spent the best part of four months insulting his colleagues.

Much more problematic, however, is what happens if the Remain side wins, probably narrowly, which the ORB poll in this newspaper yesterday suggested is currently the most likely outcome. Dark mutterings about a leadership challenge against Mr Cameron have certainly not been silenced by the sheer aggression of No 10’s campaign, which has caught many Outers by surprise.

Until fairly recently there was talk of an Osborne/Gove “dream team” were Mr Cameron to step down early after winning the referendum. This prospect was given some credence when the Chancellor invited the Justice Secretary and his wife to stay at Dorneywood, his official country residence, after the Justice Secretary announced he was to join the Brexit camp. But surely any chance of a rapprochement has gone with the ill-tempered exchanges of the past few days.

The legacy of a Remain victory will be lingering resentment that will scar the Tory party for years to come. Of course, the party’s obituary has been prematurely written many times before. But history shows that winning does not necessarily shore up a Prime Minister’s position and can even undermine it. Peel resigned within days of winning his Corn Laws battle in 1846; and though the Conservative Party stayed intact, it didn’t win an electoral majority again for 30 years.