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Frozen conflicts

As a result of the conflicts in South Ossetia and over the Azerbaijani enclave Nagorno-Karabakh the Caucasus has become the main stage for the outbreak of a "Second Cold War", writes Johan Galtung, founder of the peace and development network TRANSCEND in the German weekly Freitag. "The witch-hunt is aimed at the long-term isolation of Russia, India and China - states in which over two-fifths of the world's population live. ... The Caucasus could mutate into a huge battleground if the Cold War II ever turns hot. In this setting it is the outbreak of proxy wars - as were typical before Cold War I - rather than a direct confrontation between the US and Russia that poses the real threat. For instance there are efforts directed at maintaining the territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh virulent and unresolved. ... As such conflicts between states always favour territorial integrity over national self-determination, it is unlikely to provoke international protest. ... A division of the Nagorno-Karabakh region would destabilise the entire area. ... Peace in the Caucasus can only be achieved through exclusion of the great powers and an active Caucasian integration policy. ... I would like to see more responsible state leadership in the Caucasus."

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