Russia, not Trump, is to blame for the failure of this nuclear treaty

Nato has said that it fully supports the decision of the United States to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. This is important. Critics of President Trump will jump on the decision as proof that he is a maverick intent on starting a new arms race – but this move was a long time coming and Russia is to blame. 

American officials have previously suggested that Russia began testing the type of ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles banned by the treaty as early as 2008; in 2014, President Obama accused Vladimir Putin of violating the INF. On December 4, 2018, Nato declared that Russia “developed and fielded a missile system, the 9M729, which... poses significant risks to Euro-Atlantic security.” Yesterday, in its communique supporting America’s latest action, Nato protested that Russia continues to deny what is widely acknowledged and refuses to take steps back to compliance. It concluded that unless Mr Putin acts accordingly, and within the six months it takes for the US to withdraw from the INF, “Russia will bear sole responsibility for the end of the treaty”.

No one in their right mind will welcome these events, but at least now we know where things stand. That’s what Mr Trump often does: he champions honesty over the diplomatic etiquette that, especially under Mr Obama, has translated into inaction. It is time to admit that Nato partners don’t contribute enough towards defence; time to confront China over intellectual property theft; time to recognise the new reality in Syria. 

Russia, however, has been an unusually grey area for the White House. Rhetorically, Mr Trump has sought dialogue, even reconciliation – and yet the US has supplied arms to Ukraine and come close to confrontation with Moscow in Syria. This latest move hopefully confirms a more consistent policy. What’s at stake is the balance of force in the world and peace in Europe: intermediate-range missiles could of course strike Nato allies. A regime that has split Ukraine in two, seized Crimea and attempted assassinations on British soil is unlikely to be averse to nuclear blackmail.

Hopefully, too, this withdrawal will prompt Moscow to realise the dangerous game it is playing and think again. Russia typically responds to strength: it sees what it can get away with and, detecting softness, pushes its advantage. Nato must stand firm.