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Human influence on the climate, by Mojib Latif

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The Kyoto Protocol

By now the climate issue has made it to the top of the global political agenda. On 10 December 1997 the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change unanimously adopted the so-called Kyoto Protocol which compels industrial countries to cut their greenhouse emissions by an average 5.2% (based on 1990 emissions) by 2012. With Russia's ratification of the Protocol in February 2005, it has become internationally binding. On average, the European Union must reduce its emissions by 8% - more than the U.S.'s 7% or Japan's 6%. Russia is expected to stabilise its emissions while Norway may even increase its amount. These different percentages are the result of demonstrably different conditions but to some extent they also reflect the negotiation skills of individual countries. However, in the meantime, the U.S. has withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol and the Protocol also does not take into account threshold countries such as China or India, although together the U.S. and China account for approximately 40% of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide.

In its current form, the Kyoto Protocol does not provide the degree of climate protection climate researchers deem necessary. In order to prevent serious climate changes within the next century, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be cut to a fraction (less than 20%) of current emission levels by 2100. That means that in the future more weight needs to be put on the introduction of renewable energies because only they are unlimited in their availability, particularly solar energy. Since the climate only responds to long-term strategies, the economy can gradually convert towards the use of renewable energies within the next century. However, it is important that we fully utilize all opportunities for saving energy today and choose to follow the path towards a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In this respect, the Kyoto Protocol has been a first, important step in the right direction.

To opt for sustainable development today is also a sensible decision in economic and energy-policy terms because overall it is less expensive to take preventive action than to pay the price for ever more frequent climate-related damage in the future. The extent of damage caused by the flooding of the Elbe illustrates this point quite clearly. Moreover, we should not experiment with our planet because the past has taught us that the Earth has many surprises in store For instance, no scientist predicted the ozone hole over Antarctica although the ozone depletion of CFCs was well-known at the time. The climate is a non-linear system that may develop in astounding ways when subjected to strong influences. In this context, the record-breaking summer of 2003 was so extraordinary, even taking human-activity derived global warming into account, that it was of extremely low probability.

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