Armenia: time to turn its back on Russia?
Armenia plans to hold a joint military exercise with the US in September - against the backdrop of the crisis over the blockaded Nagorno-Karabakh region - but has cancelled joint drills with the CSTO military alliance comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently described Armenia's dependence on Russia in security matters as a mistake. Commentators agree.
Yerevan feels betrayed by Moscow
Armenia's love affair with Moscow is over, Jutarnji list surmises:
“Another Putin ally wants to cut its ties with Russia. Yerevan is distancing itself from its former Moscow patron saints and seeking protection in the West. ... This about-turn is no coincidence. Armenia feels betrayed by Moscow because the latter didn't support it in 2020 when its war with Azerbaijan reignited. Turkey supported Azerbaijan militarily and politically, but contrary to expectations Armenia received no such support from Russia. ... Yerevan accuses Russia of being passive and indulgent towards Azerbaijan because it doesn't want to hurt its good relations with Turkey.”
This partner can no longer be counted on
24tv.ua cites statements by military expert David Sharp on Russia's role in Nagorno-Karabakh:
“Russia is supposed to be Armenia's ally. The two countries built up partnerships, especially when it came to arms purchases. ... Today, the aggressor country has its major problems of its own due to the war it is waging against Ukraine, and it lacks the strength and the capacities to fulfil its obligations. And Azerbaijan is taking advantage of this. ... 'Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said it was a strategic mistake [to have relied on Russia]. But they had no other choice,' said Sharp. ... The situation is serious. If the situation threatens to escalate, Armenia is much weaker than Azerbaijan. The presence of the Russian contingent is purely symbolic.”
Justified anger vis-à-vis international partners
The Neue Zürcher Zeitung criticises not only Russia for being too passive regarding the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh:
“For nine months Azerbaijan has blocked access to the region of Nagorno-Karabakh inhabited by Armenians. ... The cruel actions of Azerbaijan - a member of the Council of Europe - flagrantly violate international law. ... Moreover, a policy of starving out an ethnic group is always illegal. It is reminiscent of the years-long siege of the enclave of Srebrenica by Serbian troops during the Bosnian war. ... It is true that the EU, the US, the UN and even Russia cannot be accused of turning a blind eye to the Armenians' plight. But the whole thing is more like simulating action than real action.”
The Kremlin is jittery
In a commentary piece in Echo, political scientist Hrant Mikaelian wonders how Moscow will react:
“Scheduling these drills is a step towards building security relations with the US. In view of the political competition over the South Caucasus region, the Armenian leadership has made up its mind and is pursuing the corresponding policy. Armenia is not the first CSTO country to conduct joint exercises with the US on its territory. A year ago, such joint exercises also took place in Tajikistan. Back then Moscow's reaction was mild. But with regard to Armenia, we can already see that the reactions are far more critical. ... The question now is what will come out of this.”
Moscow losing control over its own backyard
The Kremlin is leaving Yerevan in the lurch, says Der Standard:
“For months, [Azerbaijan] has been blocking the Lachin Corridor, the only connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh with its Armenian-majority population. The humanitarian situation there is now catastrophic. According to the current agreement, Russian troops are supposed to ensure free passage. But Moscow's interests currently lie elsewhere. Partly as a result of the Western sanctions, Azerbaijan and its trade routes are not unimportant for Russia. And nor does Russia want to alienate Turkey, Azerbaijan's protecting power. However, this means that Russia is seeing Armenia turn away from it in disillusionment. Its control over its own backyard is dwindling.”
A peace treaty is the only solution
Radio Kommersant FM says it can understand why Yerevan is looking for new allies:
“The Republic [of Armenia] is losing Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russia is not in a position to influence this process ... Military drills, invitations to join NATO or threats from the West - which, by the way, are not forthcoming - won't help its [Armenia's] cause. The only way out is a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Nikol Pashinyan is being forced to admit this. But the bitter consequences of this de facto military defeat can be mitigated by blaming Russia for everything.... This doesn't mean that the Armenian prime minister has no cause to be dissatisfied. After all, what is the point of having an ally if it cannot help you at a difficult moment?”