How to deal with demographic trends in Europe?
Demographic and social trends are fuelling debate in Europe. The proportion of older people in the total population is increasing while the working-age population decreases, putting a severe strain on pension systems. Birth rates are also falling, and the option of using immigration to rebalance the social security systems is highly contentious.
Pensions causing havoc
The Neue Zürcher Zeitung calls for pension reforms:
“This young generation will only be able to fund their own pensions if they themselves have children and raise them – but nowhere near enough of them are doing this. ... And because this equation doesn't add up, the state is having to use more and more taxpayers' money to plug the deficits in the pension system. In Italy, public spending on old-age pensions already accounts for 16 percent of annual economic output. Yet hardly any government dares to rectify the pension system's financial difficulties, for example by linking the retirement age to life expectancy. Furthermore, while there is much lamenting about Europe becoming increasingly uncompetitive on the international stage, the fact that the pension system – which is far too expensive due to the low birth rate – is a major reason for this remains just as much of a political taboo.”
Fear of migration is counterproductive
Andreas Panagopoulos, editor-in-chief of To Vima, puts in:
“If a country can no longer replace its working-age population, there are three basic solutions: to boost the birth rate (in the long term), have more older workers (in the medium term) and integrate more migrants into the labour market (in the short term). In practice, all three measures will be necessary. The EU is already examining migration, greater participation by women in the labour market and education as key instruments. ... However this raises an enormous political problem: an ageing society needs migrants to maintain its economic performance. But at the same time ageing electorates are increasingly sceptical, if not outright hostile, towards migration. This is one of Europe's great demographic paradoxes.”
Young people drawn to the West
Denník Postoj quotes commentary pieces relating to Central and Eastern Europe:
“Of the 19 countries between Estonia and Bulgaria, only three have a larger population 35 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain than they did back then: the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Montenegro. Conversely, a number of countries have lost more than a quarter of their population. ... The average age in the region was just 32 in 1990. Today, it is exactly ten years higher. That is how quickly we are catching up with the oldest populations in Western Europe, such as those in Italy and Spain. ... Access to the Western European labour market and the consequences of the economic changes of the last three decades have led to a one-sided exodus to the West. Central and Eastern Europe has lost millions of young, productive people to the West.”
Orbán's family policy has reached its limit
The tax breaks and family allowances introduced by the successive Orbán governments have failed to reverse demographic trends in Hungary, Portfolio observes:
“The unfavourable trends suggest that the intensive family policy measures of recent years have reached their limits and are not enough to offset those structural social and economic factors – such as uncertain prospects for the future, housing shortages or difficulties in balancing work and private life – which have a decisive influence on decisions regarding starting a family in Hungary.”
Dogs instead of kids?
Válasz Online offers an unusual statistical deep dive:
“The sharp rise in the number of dogs is coinciding with a fall in birth rates and an increase in the proportion of childless people. ... Whether people are choosing dogs instead of children – and whether this is therefore a factor contributing to the fall in the birth rate – remains an open question. According to the research, having a dog as a substitute for a child is not an alternative to human reproduction: pet ownership and motherhood are not mutually exclusive but tend to overlap in the lifestyle of Europe's middle class. However, the increasing prevalence of this phenomenon stems from serious underlying causes such as loneliness – a problem that should also be taken seriously at the societal level.”