AfD wins big in Saxony-Anhalt state election
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured just under 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt but fell short of an absolute majority in the state parliament. This was the first time that a party officially classified as far-right has won a state election in Germany. The media debate the reasons behind the party's success, the repercussions for German politics, and what lessons Europe can learn.
A political earthquake
La Vanguardia voices alarm:
“The AfD is a xenophobic and clearly pro-Russian party. Its regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified by the German intelligence services as a 'confirmed far-right extremist' organisation. ... Its rise further weakens the Merz government, which is leading a grand coalition that has failed to revive the economy, with frequent disputes between the coalition partners and each new electoral defeat further undermining its political authority. ... Yesterday Germany experienced a political earthquake that was as expected as it was worrying – and not just for the German state.”
Gale warning for Germany
The rapid growth of the party will continue, Ilta-Sanomat suspects:
“Regardless of whether the AfD enters government or not, the party's clear victory in Saxony-Anhalt is a gale warning for the whole of Germany. It strengthens the AfD's position in German politics. ... The next federal elections in Germany are in spring 2029. In those elections, the AfD will be a serious contender for the position of the largest party. ... Many right-wing populist parties in Europe have shifted course towards a more moderate stance after coming to power. ... The AfD, by contrast, has become more radical with each passing year. The tougher its policies are, the more it grows. Would that change if it came to power? That's still a hypothetical question. For now.”
Populist wave not ebbing
The AfD's victory is a warning signal for the political centre in Europe and cause for celebration in Moscow, notes The Daily Telegraph:
“The AfD triumph in Saxony-Anhalt will send shock waves through the European political establishment, confounding their claim that the populist wave was ebbing across the Continent. ... In Moscow, Vladimir Putin will be popping bottles of Crimean champagne at the news. The AfD is stubbornly pro-Russian and wants sanctions lifted immediately. Nine out of ten of its voters think Berlin has been far too generous to Ukraine. ... The rise of the AfD does not mean that history is repeating itself. Most AfD voters are not neo-Nazis, but underdogs who feel patronised by the bigwigs in Berlin.”
Cordon sanitaire won't hold
Sooner or later there will be coalitions with the AfD in Germany, predicts journalist Petru Clej on the G4Media.ro blog:
“According to opinion polls, the federal coalition government led jointly by Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz and the SPD is extremely unpopular, and excluding the AfD seems to have had no effect other than boosting its approval ratings even further, with the party now polling at 30 percent of the vote in nationwide surveys. ... If the AfD starts getting results similar to those in Saxony-Anhalt in the large, more prosperous states of western Germany, it's hard to imagine that the traditional parties will be able to continue keeping it out of power by refusing to form governing coalitions with it.”
Merz is the wrong man for these times
This election must have consequences for Merz, Der Spiegel demands:
“For years, German chancellors have been judged among other things by whether they can keep the AfD in check. Merz cannot, also because he has been unable to foster unity within his coalition and improve the mood in Germany. Saxony-Anhalt has voted. The result reflects a mood that is not unique to this particular federal state. It has to do with politics as a whole and the major issues that are decided primarily in Berlin. ... [The coalition] needs a reset, a fresh start, starting with the chancellor. Friedrich Merz is clearly the wrong man for the job in these times. The CDU and CSU must consider whether they want to risk losing further election campaigns with him.”
A turning point
The outcome of the election is not just a problem for Saxony-Anhalt, Tageblatt develops:
“Without a doubt, this election must also be seen as a vote of no confidence in Friedrich Merz. ... And if the German chancellor's hold on power is shaken, this will also have consequences for stability in Europe. This election marks a turning point. Rifts are coming to light here that will also become evident in other elections across Germany in the coming weeks and months. In the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but also in the west, for example next spring in the Saarland, just across the border from Luxembourg. What's more, the AfD is also in a leading position in the national polls.”
Not looking good
An AfD-led government will hurt Saxony-Anhalt's economy, Deutsche Welle's Bulgarian service comments:
“Saxony-Anhalt relies on foreign workers in key sectors such as healthcare. Ulrich Sigmund and his team will drive them away. Renewable energy is the key strength of this small federal state in terms of population and economy, with wind turbines and solar panels meeting around 60 percent of its energy needs. The AfD has long since declared war on these energy sources. The chemical industry is a key sector but is heavily dependent on foreign investors, who traditionally shy away from extreme political doctrines. Even if they do not stagnate entirely, there will be a significant decline in such investments.”
Consequences for all Europe
These results send a message far beyond Germany's borders, Svenska Dagbladet explains:
“For the AfD, the election in Saxony-Anhalt marks the start of a triumphant march across the whole of Germany. Their aim is for this victory to spread like ripples on water. ... From a European perspective, Saxony-Anhalt signals that the far right is on the rise and that all attempts to keep parties like the AfD out of power have failed. And beyond that this is likely to encourage the EU sceptics and right-wing nationalists in France, Poland, Spain and Italy who are standing for election next year. For the EU, the election result creates uncertainty regarding political stability in its most influential member state and largest economy.”