India - Pakistan: how dangerous is the situation?
Following a deadly attack on tourists in the India-controlled part of Kashmir, tensions are escalating between hostile nuclear powers India and Pakistan. New Delhi has terminated the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled Pakistanis and closed its airspace to flights from its neighbour. Europe's press looks at why this hotspot is particularly explosive right now.
Modi as a risk factor
Changed variables could make this old conflict less benign this time round, Polityka fears:
“An Indian offensive cannot be ruled out. After all, there have been numerous confrontations in the past. Kashmir has often been a flashpoint. Has the escalation machine now definitively been set in motion? It's hard to say. But the fact is that Modi is a radical and has no qualms about using aggressive rhetoric. And that is a factor that had not been in the equation in the past.”
Carefully calibrated response needed
The Financial Times urges India to be cautious:
“If New Delhi is determined to respond militarily, any strikes should be carefully calibrated. Targeting terrorist sites, rather than the Pakistani military itself, would send a robust message while still keeping off-ramps open. But as much as possible, New Delhi should explore non-military options. It is showing signs of doing so, suggesting it may oppose a 1.3 billion [dollar] IMF loan to Pakistan - though such loans should not become an instrument of political pressure.”
Trump's policies shifting the red lines
Unian explains India's harsh reaction to the recent terrorist attack:
“What happened to make the Indians decide to break the old peace agreements they had been abiding by since the 1960s? Trump happened. Under him, the 'global policeman' that was the US is taking a break. What's more, it's lost its way, because Trump himself wants to take over Greenland, Canada, Gaza or Panama - it all depends on which leg he's standing. And now all those across the globe who wanted to take something away from their neighbours but used to get rapped on the knuckles by the international community, spearheaded by the US, have sensed that their chance has come.”