How dangerous is the India-Pakistan confrontation?
India has attacked targets in neighbouring Pakistan and the Pakistan-controlled part of the disputed Kashmir region. Official sources in New Delhi stress that only "terrorist infrastructure" was targeted, but Islamabad says 31 civilians were killed and has vowed to retaliate. This latest escalation in the long-standing conflict was prompted by a terrorist attack on tourists in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir.
De-escalation still on the cards
The nature of India's attack on Pakistan gives news.bg cause for hope:
“The Indian military strike wasn't directed against Pakistani military targets (unlike in last year's conflict between Iran and Israel). The Indian Air Force carried it out from its own airspace without entering Pakistani territory. Meaning that although 'Operation Sindoor' is yet another element in the growing tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, it is still an attempt at a controlled, small-scale escalation. Now everything depends on how Pakistan responds.”
Ominous threats to block water access
Access to water could play a key role in future wars, Helsingin Sanomat reflects:
“The Indus is crucial to Pakistan's economy, agriculture and energy production. Modi is threatening to stop the flow of water across the border to Pakistan. ... India's threat is serious. A water conflict would cause a far more serious crisis for Pakistan than isolated military clashes and terrorist attacks. Control of water resources is of geopolitical importance. Even if India doesn't have the direct technical means to block the flow of the Indus into Pakistan, the threat shows what future wars could be fought over elsewhere in the world.”
Modi will exploit the crisis
Politically speaking the timing of this conflict is convenient for Modi, Polityka writes:
“The West officially claims that India constitutes an important democratic counterweight to Beijing in Asia. Closer to the facts would be the admission that for a decade now New Delhi has focused its domestic policy on religious and ethnic polarisation and fomenting hatred against Muslims. However, the citizens are less and less convinced and gave Modi the yellow card in last year's general election, forcing him to lead a coalition government. This new war situation gives the prime minister arguments for silencing critics and taking special measures.”
Nuclear escalation possible
This conflict could easily spiral out of control, The Spectator warns:
“Both countries have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since their last stand-off in 2019. The two nuclear-armed neighbours have fought three wars - in 1948, 1965 and 1971 - and clashed numerous times since gaining independence. The Kashmir region, which is claimed by both nations, is a perennial flashpoint in relations. It is vital that calmer diplomatic voices prevail at this unpredictable and dangerous moment, doing everything possible to prevent this conflict from spiralling further out of control. The potential for this crisis to spiral into all-out war, potentially involving nuclear weapons, is real enough.”
Dawn of an era of instability
Blogger Kirill Shulika describes a global trend on Facebook:
“As far as India and Pakistan are concerned, we must understand that a large-scale process of destruction of the world order that emerged after the Cold War is underway. This process is not only limited to Europe but is happening all over the world. Look at where things are heading in Africa. ... So don't be surprised if all the hot spots flare up now, including on the Korean Peninsula. The era of global instability will leave no one untouched. ... Stability is gone, and turmoil has set in. A rather predictable and yet surprising turn of events.”