US midterms: a debacle for Trump?
The US midterms take place in just a few days' time: on 3 November the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be up for election. According to the polls it cannot be ruled out that the Democratic Party will win a majority in one or even both chambers of Congress, which would make governing the country considerably more difficult for US President Donald Trump. Commentators are on tenterhooks.
Factor in resistance within the party
Konfront warns that a numerical majority for the Democrats in the Senate won't automatically translate into a change of course:
“If the Democratic Party were to secure a narrow majority in the upper house, but that majority existed only on paper due to internal party divisions, it would have disastrous consequences. And before anyone thinks that party interests take precedence over everything else and that such a scenario won't happen, they should take a close look at the current House of Representatives. Over the past two years, a razor-thin majority held by the Republican Party would have made it possible to pass legislation, albeit not without a struggle. However, this has failed spectacularly on several occasions due to resistance from ultra-conservative factions within the party.”
America's heartland feels betrayed
The election will be decided in the Midwest, writes Revista 22:
“In October, Trump launched a whirlwind campaign in these states, promising all kinds of things while showing no intention of making any significant changes to his policies. On the contrary, he's convinced that the golden age of the US economy has already begun and that everyone will reap the benefits. The Democrats are delighted by such statements, given the reality of the situation. It gives them a better chance of victory. It's not that voters in the Midwest have rediscovered their love for the Democrats. Many say in polls that they don't think anything would change if the Democrats came to power. But they are deeply disappointed and feel betrayed by the Republicans – and by Trump in particular.”
Already governing by decree
Maxim Suchkov, an international relations scholar specialised in American affairs, argues in Kommersant that an electoral defeat for the Republicans would not be all that disastrous for Trump:
“Even with a loyal Congress at his disposal, Trump prefers to push through important decisions via so-called executive orders. Since January 2025, he has issued more than 290 of them. Incidentally Bill Clinton, who governed under the conditions of a hostile Congress, took a similar approach: he issued 364 executive orders during his eight years in office. For presidents, scoring political points and demonstrating immediate effectiveness is more important than consistent policies.”
Nothing to be proud of
There's hardly anything good to be said about Trump's performance on fulfilling his campaign pledges, news website Öt.hu writes:
“Contrary to his promises, the president has not really boosted the US economy, reduced national debt, or brought back a large part of the American industry that had been relocated abroad. And he has certainly not brought about world peace. And despite his bombastic promises he has not drained the swamp in Washington either. ... Indeed, it seems that President Trump himself has become the new master of the swamp in Washington, and his unpredictable and often irrational decisions have further exacerbated both the division within American society and the crisis in domestic politics.”
Midterms a catalyst
The midterm elections could make Trump even more unpredictable regardless of the outcome, warns political scientist Dominykas Kaminskas in the business magazine IQ:
“The Democratic Party lacks both a clear vision and high-profile leaders. ... The only thing that actually unites them at present is their opposition to Donald Trump. ... The midterm elections will not limit Trump's power, regardless of the outcome. However the additional pressure he will face afterwards will greatly provoke the US President and prompt him to adopt an even more aggressive approach. It is therefore crucial for Lithuania and Europe to secure the support of the US Congress in the coming times.”
Acid test for democracy
Things could get very tricky if Trump refuses to accept a defeat, political scientist Liudas Dapkus observes in Delfi:
“What happens if the Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives? Why would this president accept such an election result when he can yell about stolen votes, falsified electoral protocols and conspirators on the electoral commissions? ... This time, moreover, the president has the entire executive branch at his disposal and benefits from a far more loyal political environment. ... Russian President Boris Yeltsin resolved his conflict with parliament in 1993 with the help of tanks. While the US President doesn't have such powers, there are other ways to trigger political chaos.”
Europe hoping for a blocking effect
A Democratic victory would be the best outcome for the EU, Ilta-Sanomat explains:
“In recent weeks, Trump has once again been currying favour with Russian President Vladimir Putin and putting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a tight spot. ... A clear victory for the Democrats in the midterms would give the party greater scope to obstruct Trump's policy on Ukraine. Their influence will depend on whether they manage to win the House of Representatives, the Senate or both. Regardless of the midterm results, as president Trump will continue to determine US foreign policy, but even a slight curbing of his influence would be good news for Ukraine and Europe.”