Will there be a new war over Nagorno-Karabakh?
In the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, around 100 people have been killed in a new spate of attacks. Commentators see this as a consequence of the changed balance of power due to the war in Ukraine and fear further escalation.
Erdoğan seizing the moment
As Azerbaijan's protector, Turkey sees the weakening of Russian troops in the war against Ukraine as an opportunity, investment banker Serhiy Fursa writes on Gordonua.com:
“Erdoğan saw this and decided that now was the time to strike. And so Azerbaijan attacked Armenia. It had realised that Russia could not afford to intervene. The time had come when it no longer mattered whether Armenia was a member of the CSTO or not. ... Erdoğan is not only making a mockery of Putin and the Russian generals in one fell swoop, but also of the CSTO, with which he vies for influence in Central Asia.”
Now Russia's satellites are tottering
There will be more tremors on the periphery of Russian power, political scientist Sergei Medvedev predicts on Facebook:
“It seems to me that with the progressive dissolution of all combat-ready units of the Russian army, interesting times await us in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If I were Georgia, I wouldn't waste any time. ... Little by little, the belt of pirate territories from the Terek to the Memel, painstakingly conquered and bolstered by Russia over the last 30 years, is crumbling: Ossetia, Abkhazia, the Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic [the separatist republics in eastern Ukraine], Crimea, Transnistria, Belarus - not to mention Chechnya. ... The strategic lame ducks in the Kremlin have no idea what a Pandora's box they opened on 24 February.”
Moscow alienating both sides
Russia is no longer living up to its role as a mediator, notes the Süddeutsche Zeitung:
“The conflict is unresolved, there have been repeated exchanges of fire and deaths in recent months. Moscow has never said much about it. Now Russia could become a total disappointment for both sides. For the Armenians, who once again feel abandoned in the face of Azerbaijani attacks. And for the Azerbaijanis, who must see Moscow's soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh as a hostile force. If they really go ahead and attempt to conquer further areas, Moscow will have failed as a peace broker.”