What have four years of war done to Russia?
Since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russia has undergone significant internal changes, with the Kremlin regime tightening its grip on power. However, the economy, which initially boomed thanks to massive government contracts and high oil prices, is now faltering, and according to estimates around 300,000 soldiers have been killed in action.
Paralysing fears about what the future holds
In a Telegram post republished by Echo, former Navalny employee Lilia Chanysheva describes the frustration of the Russian people:
“Millions are waiting for the war to end and live in fear of tomorrow. ... At the same time, prices are rising, opportunities are becoming more limited, independent media and civil society organisations are being shut down and the Internet and messaging apps are being blocked. ... I hear the phrase 'We are weary' more and more often. People want predictability. ... The country is becoming increasingly closed off and repressive. ... Decisions are made without public discussion, and we all bear the consequences. This war has already changed Russia. But the key question is: what will our country be like in the future?”
An ark with its own values
The pro-Kremlin Izvestia justifies the war as a salutary test:
“The most important result of these difficult four years has been the attainment of genuine sovereignty. ... We have managed to survive the sanctions imposed by the world's strongest and most developed economies with dignity. We have become a kind of ark in which traditional spiritual and moral values are preserved and protected. It is above all our desire to live as we see fit that rouses the ire of the globalist elite. ... Russia has broken all the chains that bound us to this decaying world of mindless consumption and neo-colonialism.”
Without victory Putin has nothing to offer
Svenska Dagbladet explains that the war is a matter of life and death for the Kremlin:
“This war is the only vision of the future on which the Putin regime bases its legitimacy, and the more this regime rots from within, the more vital the war becomes for its survival. It is, however, finding it increasingly difficult to maintain the appearance of success. Hope lies in the elective affinity with Donald Trump. In the ongoing negotiations, the Kremlin is seeking a 'peace deal' in which Ukraine loses (territory and sovereignty) and Russia, as a bonus, gains the opportunity to expand its economic and military power.”
Follow Reagan's example
Pressure from abroad already once brought Moscow to its knees in the past, Tageblatt points out:
“Just as former US president Ronald Reagan brought about the demise of the Soviet Union in the 1980s by forcing it to re-arm beyond its means, increased European military support for Ukraine could put pressure on Putin's Russia. The current circumstances are similar and decisive: the Russian economy is increasingly burdened by the war, which is demanding ever higher government spending at a time when oil prices and revenues are working against Russia.”