US-Iran: last chance for negotiations?
Against the backdrop of a massive US military build-up, indirect talks between the US and Iran are set to resume in Geneva today, with Oman acting as mediator. While Tehran wants the negotiations to be limited to its nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions, the US is insisting on agreements that include Iran's missile programme. Commentators focus on Donald Trump's strategy.
There was a diplomatic solution before
Salzburger Nachrichten is sceptical that the US military build-up in the region will persuade Tehran to back down:
“The political calculation is clear: to force Iran to abandon not only its nuclear programme, but also its missile programme. However, being left without either could appear even more dangerous to the mullahs than the current threat. ... Iran's regime doesn't want to give anything up. Neither its nuclear programme, nor its missiles, nor its power. A 'diplomatic solution to the problem', as Trump himself has said he prefers, was already underway internationally: with the nuclear deal that the US president terminated during his first term in office. ... It's hard to imagine a better outcome - with or without military action.”
Unpredictability presented as a strength
The US president is under real time pressure, political scientist Linas Kojala points out on Delfi:
“Trump generally prefers short, clearly defined military strikes that don't pose a significant threat to US forces and reduce the risk of a protracted war. After all, he returned to the presidency as a leader who ends wars - not one who starts them. ... The US president will, of course, be able to present any outcome as a success. He deliberately presents the unpredictability of his actions as a strength. This would allow him to justify both military action and a withdrawal. ... But time is pressing: the massive military forces assembled around Iran will not be able to remain stationed there permanently.”
Massive escalation still possible
The situation could spiral out of control, news website Liberal warns:
“The unprecedented concentration of US firepower in the region puts President Trump in a dilemma, as he must either reach and enforce a satisfactory agreement or withdraw with a hard but limited and rather symbolic strike. Alternatively, Washington must engage in a conflict with an unpredictable outcome. And of course, there is the risk that a cornered Iran will view any attack, even a small one, as a prelude to an escalation by the Americans that is targeted at the regime itself. This, in turn, would force the mullahs' regime into an all-out war against the US presence in the region, maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz and even the oil facilities of the Gulf states.”
People irrelevant for Trump once more
Washington's main priority is no longer to liberate the Iranian people from dictatorship but to assert its own interests, Le Soir laments:
“The US president has now lost any legitimacy he might have had for strikes carried out with the purpose of saving Iranians from death. He no longer even mentions protecting the population. This has disappeared from his agenda, assuming it was ever seriously on it in the first place. Not surprisingly, cynicism, lies, self-interest and bluster have regained the upper hand in the White House. The question is, what will they trigger this time? What will be their outlet? Once again, the world is the helpless hostage of Donald Trump's dangerous and completely unpredictable behaviour.”