All according to plan for Trump in Iran?
After two weeks, there is still no sign of an end to the war in Iran. The US and Israeli airstrikes continue and Tehran is responding with missile and drone attacks on targets in the Arab Gulf states and Israel. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to soar worldwide. Commentators puzzle over the US administration's strategy and goals.
Worryingly improvised
ABC bemoans a haphazard approach to this war:
“According to sources from Israeli security circles, the attack was launched without a viable plan for regime change. ... This strategic vacuum was exacerbated by a series of contradictory arguments used to justify the war. It was presented as an operation aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear programme, as a campaign to dismantle its missile capabilities and even as an attempt to overthrow the ayatollahs' regime. ... All this raises an uncomfortable but unavoidable question: how could an operation of this magnitude be launched without military planners demanding a clearer definition of the objectives and possible consequences?”
The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing
The lack of a clear strategy is the result of poor communication between US authorities, Corriere della Sera notes:
“In the United States, the entire system is so personalised that the filters of realistic analysis were suspended or bypassed before the war in the Gulf. Congress was ignored. The White House national security adviser basically no longer exists. His role has been taken over by the man who is also Secretary of State (Marco Rubio), but who was not involved in the negotiations with Iran. Instead, these were entrusted to a property developer and business partner of the president (Steve Witkoff) and Trump's son-in-law (Jared Kushner). Internal communication in Washington seems to be at a minimum.”
Tehran has been prepared for decades
The Tages-Anzeiger explains why the mullah regime is not so easy to eliminate:
“For weeks, Trump and his advisers have been publicly speculating on why the regime in Tehran hasn't simply given up. They fail to recognise that the mullahs have been preparing for precisely this scenario for decades; the fight against the 'Great Satan' is part of their identity. From their point of view they can't lose - if they die, they die as martyrs. Militarily, Iran is hopelessly inferior. But all it takes is a few hits on the oil production or desalination plants of the Gulf states, and the global economy is staring into the abyss.”
Trump on Israel's leash
Trump is no longer in control of the situation, NRC concludes:
“It's not the US but Israel that will determine how long the battle lasts. Trump is acting as a kind of gardener who has to 'mow' the dangerous Iranian grass for Benjamin Netanyahu to ward off the threat posed by the country for a few more years, and this has earned him the scorn of a substantial number of his supporters. The president has broken his election promise not to start any new wars. He is allowing himself to be bossed around by a small ally that is no longer automatically popular in the US, either on the left or the right.”