9 May: Moscow parade with no tanks or missiles
Russia will hold its annual military parade on 9 May commemorating the victory against Nazi Germany in 1945. The Ministry of Defence has announced that this year's parade will take place with no military hardware, citing the "current operational situation" and concerns about drone attacks from Ukraine.
Admission of vulnerability
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung notes a shift:
“Last year, the Russian regime acted out of a demonstrative sense of its own strength. Now it clearly finds itself on the defensive. The fact that the Kremlin is refraining from parading military equipment across Red Square due to the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks, and is shutting down mobile internet across half the country for 'Victory Day', is a remarkable admission of vulnerability.”
Attack would be fully justified
Zelensky would be fully within his rights if he launched an attack on the Victory Day parade, says Gazeta Wyborcza:
“Vladimir Putin agreed with Donald Trump, but not with Volodymyr Zelensky, that a temporary ceasefire should be in place on 9 May, when he will be standing out in the open [at the Victory Day parade]. The Ukrainian president responded by announcing a 'ceasefire regime' between Wednesday and Sunday. Moscow responded to this in its own way, with utter arrogance, attacking Ukraine with drones and glide bombs on Wednesday. It thus gave Zelenskyy every moral right to fulfil his promise that Ukraine would not allow military equipment to be on display at this year's Victory Day parade, which will be nothing more than a march by military academy cadets.”
The momentum is on Ukraine’s side
According to the Tages-Anzeiger, Kyiv is gaining the upper hand over Moscow:
“No significant military breakthroughs are to be expected on either side in Russia's war against Ukraine. But Ukraine is still holding out; it has even made minor territorial gains recently, and – inspired by the Iran war – it is attacking oil facilities and showering Russia with black rain. The collapse of Ukraine, which has so often been predicted, may never have been less likely. And now Zelensky has not only put Putin under pressure with his unilaterally declared, indefinite ceasefire, but has even forced him to scale down his beloved parade marking the victory over Nazi Germany. Whatever happens in the coming months, the momentum is currently on Ukraine’s side.”
A religion of war
In the run-up to the celebrations, the pro-Kremlin organisation All-Russia People's Front is bringing an 'Eternal Flame' to numerous Russian cities to light torches at war memorials. The Moscow Times detects religious overtones:
“This new religion that the current Russian rulers and the 'People's Front' are attempting to create is nothing other than the religion of Ares, also known as Mars, the god of war. All these parades, 'immortal regiments', 'prayers for victory' and 'military churches' are nothing but a religion of war. And the 'fire of remembrance', which followers of the new Russian faith are eagerly and elaborately spreading throughout the country, and even around the world, is the fire of war.”
Moscow's security no longer guaranteed
Political scientist Ihor Petrenko writes in a Facebook post picked up by Glavkom:
“This week the Institute for the Study of War highlighted an important point: for the first time since the beginning of the war, Putin personally commented on the attacks on Russian oil refineries. Moscow had previously ignored such incidents or denied them because they undermine the propagandist narrative. Now a reaction was unavoidable. ... Last year in the run up to 9 May around 280 air defence systems were sent to Moscow, some from remote regions. This year, however, now that Ukrainian drones are regularly hitting their targets more than 1,500 km inside the border, even this no longer offers a guarantee.”
Putin's got the jitters
MP Mykola Knyazhizkyi writes on Facebook:
“In 2023, the parade took place just a few days after drone attacks on the Kremlin. This parade is famous for including a T-34 tank that was rolled out of a museum as well as for using the presidents of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and several other countries as a kind of 'human shield'. Because the whole of Russia – from the Baltic Sea to the Urals – is currently in turmoil, it's unlikely that they will manage to find any foreign leader willing to provide 'cover' for Putin with their presence. All hopes rest on Fico. This is why Putin rang Trump – so that he will act as a guarantor of security and ensure that Ukraine refrains from attacking Russia for a certain period.”
Hard to fathom Fico's motivation
Új Szó speculates on why the Slovak prime minister is intent on travelling to Moscow:
“It's hard to understand why Robert Fico is so determined to go to Moscow or what his motivation might be. Is he really that keen to appear at the parade or stand in the VIP box alongside a handful of Central Asian dictators? Or is this in fact a phase of quiet economic networking in which the PM will be negotiating investments behind the scenes? Could it be nothing more than a gesture towards the pro-Russian section of Slovak society? Or is it actually a matter of principle which makes it vital for the Slovak premier to show his respect for the country's liberation [in World War II]?”