Ukraine war: what comes after the prisoner swap?
Russia launched a massive offensive involving hundreds of drones and missile strikes against Ukraine on the weekend, while a number of Ukrainian missiles were intercepted in the Moscow region. At the same time the two warring countries completed a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap - the biggest since the war began. US President Trump criticised both President Putin as 'absolutely crazy' and President Zelensky, for 'causing problems'.
This week could be decisive
Radio Kommersant lists possible further developments:
“By and large, this new week could finally be the decisive one. There are several options for how things could go. Either the negotiation process is interrupted, America withdraws and the [US Republican and Democratic senators] Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill is put to the vote. Or the consultations take place - perhaps not in Istanbul or the Vatican, but in some third location that everyone accepts. Or everything stays the same and there is an exceptionally technical meeting in Turkey to work out a roadmap.”
Berlin pressing ahead
La Repubblica analyses the German chancellor's announcement that range limits for arms supplied to Ukraine no longer apply:
“Friedrich Merz has only been in the saddle for a short time, but the German chancellor is clearly assuming a leading role at the forefront of those European countries that want to continue to support Ukraine despite the US's inconsistency. ... Berlin is pulverising the current range limit of 70 kilometres. ... And it has opened up the possibility - still purely theoretical - of supplying the famous Taurus, the 500-kilometre-range missiles that Ukraine has been demanding for years. Berlin is giving Volodomyr Zelensky what former chancellor Olaf Scholz had always refused him for fear of a nuclear escalation by Russia.”
Trump just wanted to keep his promise
The US president's latest tirade against Putin should not be interpreted as a fundamental change of heart, Sydsvenskan stresses:
“To believe that he will now take a more pro-Ukraine stance is probably wishful thinking. ... For Trump, the crux seems to be that he promised to bring about peace quickly and easily - and it makes him look bad that the war is dragging on. Be that as it may, Trump's core message regarding the war in Ukraine has long been that the responsibility is not his. ... The stance according to which the war in Ukraine is not the US's concern only benefits Putin.”
In a few days things could be very different again
Seznam Zprávy wonders whether the US president is seriously disgruntled with Putin:
“He said that Putin had gone crazy, was killing people and wanted all of Ukraine: 'I don't know what the hell happened to Putin.' ... Trump is certainly thinking about tightening the sanctions. ... Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted to the US president's words saying that Trump was obviously suffering from some 'emotional overload'. So is the moment coming when Trump will feel insulted and want to hit back at Putin? Let's not hold our breath, because within a few days things could be very different again with the American president.”
Peace process full of uncertainties
La Repubblica draws hope from the prisoner exchange:
“This is an uncertain path, the outcome of which depends on many factors. And not just because the Europeans are groping around in the dark, so to speak. ... Even Erdoğan, it seems, lacks a vision of the big picture. ... He said that Trump didn't tell him what was actually said in his last phone conversation with Putin which led to the backtracking on the threat of US sanctions against Moscow - and plunged Kyiv and the rest of the West into a crisis. Nevertheless, the trip [to Moscow on Monday] by Turkish foreign minister [Hakan Fidan] is the result of the successful prisoner exchange. This step offers hope for the future.”
Perfidious dual strategy
There is a clear connection between the prisoner exchange and the massive airstrikes against Ukraine, military analyst Aleksey Kopytko writes on Facebook:
“The large-scale and, from a military point of view, senseless night-time bombings of recent days were apparently deliberately timed by the Russians to coincide with the prisoner swap and take the conflict to a new level while at the same time deflecting criticism. ... This is pure terrorism. The Russians' perfidy knows no bounds.”
Ukraine needs cash
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung calls for the rapid confiscation of frozen Russian state assets:
“Ukraine urgently needs money. The country has a strong defence industry but it lacks the money to make full use of it. And time is running out, because two fatal deadlines are approaching. Firstly, the remaining billions that America pledged under Joe Biden will be used up a few weeks from now. Secondly, the EU has yet to confirm the immobilisation of Russian money in June, and this must be done unanimously. However, if Putin's friend Viktor Orbán votes against it this time, for example because Trump tells him to, the money will simply go back to Russia - a sum almost four times as high as the regular annual budget of the German armed forces.”