Israel attacks Iran: What are the causes and consequences?
On Friday night, Israel launched another aerial attack on Iran. In addition to the nuclear facility in Natanz, numerous residential buildings in Tehran were also targeted. Several commanders and six nuclear scientists were reportedly killed. According to Tel Aviv, Iran responded with drone attacks on Israel. Prior to the attack, there was already debate in Europe's media about Iran's nuclear programme and the risk of such an escalation.
Uncooperative Iran
The threat posed by Tehran's nuclear programme is real, La Repubblica stresses:
“For the first time in 20 years, the IAEA has reprimanded the Islamic Republic for not fulfilling its obligations with regard to its nuclear programme. It is not allowing full inspections and still has no explanation for the traces of uranium found at three undeclared sites. The next step could be the reintroduction of the UN sanctions that were lifted in 2016. This crisis has been simmering for weeks after the IAEA revealed that Tehran has a certain quantity of uranium enriched to 60 percent which – if increased to 90 percent – would be sufficient to fuel at least six nuclear weapons. ... Iran has always claimed that its programme is peaceful but it is the only country in the world without a nuclear bomb that can enrich uranium to 60 percent.”
Reprisals could affect other countries
Diena fears a conflagration:
“The same media outlets that are currently reporting on Israel being 'fully ready' for an attack reported in late May that US regional allies – such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain – were afraid of and opposed to the use of force after Trump promised the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran is not only the region's military power but also the religious centre of Shia Islam and a country with a multitude of different allied formations and movements that can be quickly mobilised for a 'holy war’ – not so much against Israel as against the US and its allies in the region.”
Trump excluded Israel and played nice with Moscow
In a Facebook post, publicist Yury Bogdanov says Trump's diplomatic efforts on the Iran nuclear issue haven't exactly been rational:
“Firstly, he has effectively excluded Israel – the strongest military power in the region – from the process. ... Ignoring the position of a key ally when you don't have any strong cards in your own hands is a pretty dubious strategy. ... Secondly, he has included Russia in the negotiations – a player with a direct interest in their failure. For the Kremlin, settling the Iran issue would mean the lifting of sanctions [against Iran], the influx of huge quantities of Iranian oil into the market and a resulting a drop in prices. Stability in the Middle East poses a direct threat to Russian interests.”
Will Tehran's tyrants be toppled?
Despite all the concerns, Phileleftheros hopes for radical change in Iran:
“Analysts assume – and the Iranian regime doesn't appear to contradict this – that in the event of an attack there is an imminent danger of the regime being toppled. This is a game of nerves, but also a game with a lot at stake for everyone in the region. Liberating the planet from this tyrannical and dangerous regime would surely produce nothing but satisfaction in the Middle East.”