Could this be the end for the regime in Tehran?
Numerous representatives of the Iranian leadership have been killed in Israel's airstrikes. In a video message subtitled in Persian, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the Iranian people to rise up against the mullahs' "evil and murderous regime". The last mass protests in Iran took place in 2022. The media discuss whether the war with Israel could lead to a change of regime in Tehran.
Only if Israel spares the population
Le Temps sees opportunities for change – but stresses that civilian casualties must be avoided:
“Above and beyond the Israeli forces' strikes against nuclear facilities, a change of regime is the goal of Benjamin Netanyahu and many American hawks. Is the mullah republic capable of preventing such an outcome? Iranian society is completely disconnected from the regime and may welcome the end of the Islamic Republic, which has become ever more authoritarian since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, all it would take is for Iranian civilians to be killed by Israeli strikes to change the situation. Paradoxically, such a scenario could rally part of the population behind the regime.”
The West didn't do its bit
We shouldn't expect the attacks to bring a change of regime, writes the taz:
“What country in the Middle East has become democratic as a result of external military intervention? That's right, not a single one. The West has failed to support change from within. Europe could have put the Revolutionary Guard on the terrorist list and directed political and economic pressure against the elites. Instead it negotiated, wooed and remained silent while the Iranian people protested, were arrested, were executed. The people who have been fighting most consistently against the regime for 46 years have been and continue to be ignored.”
Netanyahu needs this enemy
In a Facebook post, Berlin-based sociologist Igor Eidman shares the fear of his Iranian acquaintances in Germany that Netanyahu wants to keep Iran as an opponent out of self-interest:
“They are calling on Israel to strike even harder, but they fear that Netanyahu doesn't actually need the Islamic regime to collapse. If secular, democratic forces come to power in Iran he won't be able to present the regime as the arch-enemy that only the ruthless Bibi can successfully counter. He needs a permanent war with dramatic tactical successes, but never-ending. Otherwise he will no longer be able to sell himself to voters as the horse that you don't change in the middle of the stream, and he will lose power and end up on trial.”