Israel-Iran war: escalation or détente?
As Israel and Iran continue to fire missiles at each other, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany are due to meet with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva today to discuss Tehran's nuclear programme. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs will also be present. Commentators examine the global powers' entanglement in the Middle East and the chances of a negotiated solution.
He better be bluffing
Der Spiegel appeals to common sense:
“In this war too, it would be fatal to allow ourselves to be guided by an idealistic outcome: a toppled regime, a new balance in the Middle East, an end to Iran's nuclear programme. None of this can be ruled out, but it is highly speculative. It is far more plausible that things will go wrong: that the war will spread and plunge the country or the entire region into chaos. ... We can only hope that Trump's flirtation with war is just a negotiating tactic - which, together with the Europeans, he is using to secure massive concessions from the regime in Tehran. This would be the best possible way to avoid a war that no one can seriously want.”
Hoping for a breakthrough
Trump's ultimatum has broad support, observes La Repubblica:
“The long-awaited meeting between the foreign ministers of Germany, France and the UK shows that Europe backs Trump's attempt to bring Khamenei back to the negotiating table on the nuclear programme. And on closer inspection the phone call between Putin and Xi, who condemned the Israeli attacks and called for de-escalation, also bolsters the ongoing diplomatic offensive because Russia and China have signalled to Tehran that they will be on its side if it returns to negotiations. All the major powers are therefore urging Khamenei to take the step that he has so far refused to take: begin negotiations that lead to the renunciation of uranium enrichment, or in other words, say goodbye to the nuclear bomb.”
The US would be a deterrent force again
The US must receive military backing if it strikes, thunders The Sun:
“There is a powerful case for Trump to now order a bunker-buster bomb raid on Iran's underground network. Not only could it destroy the mad mullahs' ambitions for a nuclear holocaust. It could also define his presidency. Strong intervention now will show other despots the US is back as a global deterrent force after Joe Biden's humiliating Afghanistan withdrawal.... If America strikes, Britain MUST back them and Israel to the hilt. Iran – with secret agents from its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating on our streets - is a threat to us, too.”
Ploughing a lonely furrow
Tehran is looking pretty isolated, comments Corriere della Sera:
“The carnage [wrought by Hamas on 7 October 2023] not only convinced Netanyahu but the entire nation that this was now a fight for survival. In the year and eight months that have passed since then, Tel Aviv has delivered mighty blows to the tentacles of the Iranian kraken, decapitating Hamas, Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria. ... At present, all that remains of what Iranian propaganda calls the Axis of Resistance are the Houthis in Yemen, and no one knows how long they will hold out. As for the other axis that runs between Moscow, Beijing and Tehran, the spectacle of Russian and Chinese powerlessness is unmistakable. They are certainly kicking up a fuss but they are in no position to intervene.”
Putin on a tightrope
NRC analyses Moscow's role in the Middle East:
“Russia's balancing act in the Middle East is looking increasingly precarious. In recent years Moscow has invested strongly in its economic and military relations with Iran, which has taken a toll on its relations with Israel. The war in Ukraine is forcing Putin to be even more cautious here so as not to endanger his volatile relationship with Donald Trump: the man he needs most in order to decide the war in his favour.”
Iran started this
In a Facebook post Dmitry Chernyshev, a publicist living in Israel, counters the accusation that attacking the Iranian nuclear programme contravenes international law, and points out:
“Do you know which country was the first ever to launch an attack against a neighbour's nuclear programme? Iran. That was in 1980, Scorch Sword. Iran wanted to prevent Iraq from building a nuclear bomb. And on 30 September 1980, four Iranian F-4 Phantoms bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor that was under construction. Two of the Iranian bombs hit the reactor itself, while other bombs started a massive fire. The attack set back Iraq's nuclear programme by several months. A year later, the Israeli air force carried out Operation Opera, which buried Saddam's nuclear bomb once and for all.”