What is Witkoff's brief for Moscow visit?
Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff has landed in Moscow shortly before the US's deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine expires. Details of his agenda are not known at present, but a meeting with Putin has not been ruled out. European commentators speculate on the results of his visit.
Putin unlikely to back down
The Daily Telegraph doesn't expect any breakthroughs:
“Russian commentators are expressing defiant scepticism about Witkoff's impending trip. Fyodor Vytolovsky, the director of Moscow's Imemo research institute, told Rossiya-24: 'Expecting that we will suddenly come to an agreement with the Americans on everything and that the conflict in Ukraine will be resolved is unfounded and premature.' This suggests that Putin will use the Witkoff meeting as another opportunity to buy time and stall the progress of peace. Putin's weekend meeting with Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko made it very clear that he equates peace with Ukraine's capitulation and wants to be paid up-front with comprehensive sanctions relief against Russia.”
Trump needs results
The US president may respond to a potential offer from Moscow to suspend air strikes on Ukraine, military analyst Oleksiy Kopytko comments on Facebook:
“These moves by Moscow were foreseeable and Washington has surely analysed this scenario. At the moment, the probability that Trump will take up this offer is greater than zero because he needs his loud threats to produce tangible results. So the idea could be accepted as a 'first step' towards a complete end to the war. However, this will depend on the dynamics in relations with India as well as developments in other locations. If progress is made there, the US could act more decisively and reject partial solutions.”
Watch out for the smokescreens
Even if Moscow offers to suspend its air strikes its real objectives won't change, warns political scientist Viktor Shlinchak on Facebook:
“Putin's 'air truce' would be nothing more than a smokescreen to make it easier to negotiate gas, transit and common markets in the resulting haze - also with Beijing. Putin is manoeuvring through a multitude of scenarios and trying to throw as many ideas as possible at Trump in a bid to overwhelm him with an aggressive flood of initiatives - initiatives that ultimately alter nothing in the nature of Russia's strategic goal: to 'devour' Ukraine, control Europe and regain regional hegemony. I very much hope that those in the White House are now aware of these risks - also in terms of image.”
Attempt at dialogue with uncertain consequences
Commenting in LRT, political scientist Linas Kojala explains the uncertainties that Witkoff's visit entails for Europe:
“The Americans are still trying to talk to Putin. European countries face a challenge because they don't know what message or brief Witkoff has for Moscow. On the one hand sanctions are to be expected, as Trump's deadline for Russia expires this week, after which additional pressure is to be applied. On the other hand, it's unclear what steps on the part of the Kremlin would be accepted by Washington as a gesture of goodwill, and whether these would be compatible with Kyiv's strategic expectations.”
Spectacular outcome possible
Radio Kommersant hopes that the US will make certain concessions to Russia but sees Europe as an obstacle:
“There is speculation that the special envoy could make certain highly advantageous offers that will be difficult to refuse. A spectacular outcome is of course possible, although hard to imagine. What might such an offer look like? It could be that the sanctions against Russia will be partially lifted, or that America would be prepared to unilaterally recognise Crimea [as Russian territory]. The problem is that Europe rejects all this - and its opinion must also be taken into account.”
Still room to negotiate
Witkoff is hardly going to Moscow just to throw down the gauntlet to Russia, the Kremln-affiliated outlet Izvestia surmises:
“The possibility of sectoral agreements on de-escalation can't be completely ruled out - for example a deal on an 'air war ceasefire' often discussed by experts or the extension of the 'humanitarian pauses' proposed by Russia in Istanbul. An indirect argument pointing to a more optimistic scenario could be the information that a meeting with Vladimir Putin is possible during Steve Witkoff's stay in Russia. After all, a meeting at the presidential level would hardly be necessary merely to confirm the receipt of the American 'black dot' [the symbolic death sentence in pirate literature] from the hands of Donald Trump's envoy.”
A glimmer of hope
The countdown is on, La Stampa hopes:
“Donald Trump's ultimatum to the Kremlin, the deadline for which was shortened from 50 to ten days after Russia's recent bombardment of Ukrainian cities, expires on Friday, and Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, wrote in the Washington Post that this week 'the world may be presented with an opportunity to end the war'. White House envoy Steve Witkoff is expected in Moscow, from where he has been absent for months after Trump's optimism evaporated when the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul collapsed.”