France: PM announces confidence vote
In the dispute over massive budget cuts, French Prime Minister François Bayrou is seeking a confidence vote. The National Assembly will vote on the issue on 8 September, he announced after conferring with President Emmanuel Macron. If the vote fails, it will be the end of Bayrou's minority government. The press sounds the alarm.
A last-ditch attempt
Bayrou has just two weeks to turn things around, according to Libération:
“Suicidal or courageous - this announcement is undoubtedly a bit of both. After a brief moment of shock, all the opposition parties declared that they would not give their vote of confidence. ... So does François Bayrou still have any chance of saving his job? In politics, anything is possible. He has two weeks to capitalise on Monday's dramatic impact and convince people that 'everyone will be involved in the effort, including the most privileged', as he stressed - knowing full well that this is the major weakness of his programme. The countdown has begun.”
Catastrophe on the cards
The prime minister's chances of success are very slim, says L'Opinion:
“His gamble of creating an electroshock and turning the vote of confidence into a simple endorsement of the need to reduce the country's debt seems to have failed already. All Bayrou has is the lukewarm backing of a 'common base' of distressingly discreet members, but he is rejected by the left and the National Rally. ... France is back where it was a year ago, with no prime minister - or as good as none. And this time there is the added threat of the 'bloquons tout' ['block everything'] campaign, which is already planned for just two days after the vote of confidence. With major political instability, social unrest and pressure from the financial markets, the country's situation is catastrophic.”
Opposition from almost all sides
La Repubblica writes that the best the government can hope for is that the Socialist Party will back it:
“A political gamble, especially after [his predecessor] Michel Barnier was brought down last December over the adoption of the budget law. [The left-wing populist] La France Insoumise, the Communists and the Greens immediately announced that they would vote against the government. And this time Marine Le Pen has also withdrawn her support, which she had pledged to give in recent months at the very least in the form of abstention. The fate of the government will be decided by the Socialist Party, which can now tip the scales.”
Bayrou's risky tactics
Bayrou's plan makes sense but will come as a shock for France's economy, says Les Echos:
“On paper, the strategy ist not dumb. The idea is to divide the budget issue into two parts to make it easier to pass this autumn. In a first step, the head of government is trying to gain approval for his diagnosis of public finances before discussing the measures in a second step (suspending public holidays, freezing social spending, etc.). ... But the LFI and RN have already announced that they 'don't have confidence' in Bayrou. ... And an ousting of the prime minister on 8 September, followed by unrest across the country on 10 September, would not be without consequences. ... The stock market plunged by 1.6 percent right after his speech. ... It is all really worrying.”