US military withdrawal: is Nato's eastern flank safe?
The US has announced it is withdrawing some of its soldiers from Romania. In an attempt to allay fears, the Ministry of Defence in Bucharest said the decision had not come as a surprise and takes account of the fact that Nato has boosted its overall presence on the eastern flank. Press commentaries nonetheless reflect a sense of foreboding.
A worrying situation
Polityka is alarmed by the news:
“Although the US decision was announced at the beginning of the year and expected to be implemented in autumn, accompanied by a review of the deployment of US forces around the world, the fact that it mainly affects Nato's eastern flank is a worrying sign. And it is not the first of this kind, because the Trump administration decided months ago to cut the Pentagon's funding for defence cooperation programmes with the Baltic states. It also noticeably failed to display any direct commitment to repelling Russian drone attacks in September or even to use appropriately assertive language in describing the situation.”
Romania as the weakest link
G4Media.ro compares the situations in Romania and Poland:
“Poland is the only country on the eastern flank from which the US isn't withdrawing troops. This is because Warsaw has invested heavily in defence over the last decade, regardless of which government was in power. ... And these investments aren't just on paper: Poland has spent tens of billions of euros on US military equipment over the last decade alone. ... Compared to Poland, Romania has only pretended to invest. With a military industry ruined by 35 years of disastrous mismanagement and corruption, and a budget ruined by a record deficit, Romania is one of the weakest links in the Black Sea Security Zone.”
The vulnerability comes from within
The Romanian service of RFI România identifies several weak points:
“The withdrawal of troops could send the wrong signal to Russia, which might conclude that the Black Sea is now less important to the US. So must we reckon with further provocations after the drones that penetrated Romanian airspace in September? Possibly. But at this stage of the hybrid war it's not the departure of 800 US soldiers that makes Romania vulnerable. Romania is vulnerable from within because it is deeply permeated by Russian propaganda, because it lacks cohesion, and because it is increasingly questioning its affiliation with the West.”
Europe's security on the line
Ukrainian MP Mykola Kniazhytskyi voices concern in a Facebook post republished by Gazeta.ua:
“It's still unclear how far the US will go in reassessing its obligations as a security guarantor. Against the backdrop of violations of foreign airspace by Russian attack drones, military aircraft and missiles, a complete withdrawal of US troops would leave the majority of European countries as easy targets for the Russian army. Remember how last month's attack with 19 drones triggered a military-policy crisis in the EU. What would happen if all the things Putin aims at Ukrainian cities day after day were to be aimed at a EU country?”