Why has Lukashenko freed political prisoners?
Belarus's authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko has released 123 political prisoners. Among those pardoned were civil rights activist Maria Kolesnikova, former presidential candidate Viktor Babaryko and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Beliatski. The freed prisoners were taken out of the country and are not allowed to return. The move comes after the US announced it was lifting its sanctions on the Belarusian potash industry.
Clinging to power thanks to Trump
The prisoner releases are a part of Lukashenko's efforts to maintain his grip on power, writes Rzeczpospolita.
“Lukashenko is clearly not giving up hope that his 'friendship' with Donald Trump will ultimately also lead to a lifting of EU sanctions. Then his economy, which has shrivelled since the war between Russia and Ukraine began, would finally flourish again, and he could rule without a care until he hands over power to his youngest (and favourite) son Nikolai. Will it come to this?”
Over Europe's head
Politiken focuses on the less savoury aspects of the deal:
“Belarus is also the scene of a hybrid war against Europe which includes smuggling migrants into the EU as well as contraband cigarettes in hundreds of smugglers' balloons. ... But consideration for Europe played no part in the prisoner deal reached over the weekend. It was negotiated over the EU's head and yet again underlines Donald Trump's contempt for his democratic allies. Trump simply gets on better with autocrats who have tormented people like Maria Kalesnikova and many others for years. And continue to do so. That much is clear.”
Boost to image and cashflow
Historian Andrey Zubov outlines on Facebook how Lukashenko's star is rising:
“The Belarusian dictator has undoubtedly improved his political image and that of his regime. He is now practically regarded as a humanist and a reasonable person, especially as he has managed to refrain from interfering in Russia's war in Ukraine. ... Lifting sanctions against Belarus's most important export industry – the mining and processing of potash – will revitalise this sector, create thousands of new jobs and generate enormous revenues for the country through sales to the US and other countries. ... His willingness to negotiate with the West will boost the stability of the Lukashenko regime and reduce its dependence on the Putin regime.”
Belarus forced to take any help it can get
The Süddeutsche Zeitung sees the prisoners' release as a sign of the growing weakness of the Belarusian regime:
“Belarus is fighting for economic survival, and there are several reasons for this: the dictatorial, partly planned economic system, the effects of Western sanctions and the weakness of its neighbour Russia. Lukashenko is dependent on Putin, who is also battling a recession in his own country. Belarus must accept any help it can get, as it is now from the US. For the more than 1,000 political prisoners who remain in Belarus this offers fresh hope that they too will soon be released. Unfortunately, however, it also incentivises Lukashenko to take new prisoners.”
Loosening Putin's grip
Political scientist Sergiy Taran explains Trump's motives in a Facebook post picked up by Censor.net:
“The idea behind the deal between Belarus and the US is to draw Lukashenko away from Putin and give him some room for manoeuvre. Lukashenko is prepared to play along with this game. ... Trump believes that this will give Belarus more sovereignty, which will reduce Putin's options. The US thinks that it's better to have two smaller dictators than one big one - which Putin would become were he to swallow Lukashenko's Belarus once and for all. ”