Belarus frees prominent political prisoners

Belarus will only benefit to a limited extent from the easing of US sanctions, European Pravda concludes:

“The main obstacle preventing Lukashenko from taking full advantage of the lifting of sanctions on potash is the lack of a port. Rail transport eats into the margins on such sales, and Russian seaports lack the capacity to help Belarus. The lifting of these sanctions could have a noticeable impact if Lithuania were to allow the transit of Belarusian fertilisers to Klaipėda again – giving Lukashenko the opportunity to boost exports. However, Vilnius has already stated that it will not make any concessions to the Belarusian regime.”

The prisoner releases are a part of Lukashenko's efforts to maintain his grip on power, writes Rzeczpospolita.

“Lukashenko is clearly not giving up hope that his 'friendship' with Donald Trump will ultimately also lead to a lifting of EU sanctions. Then his economy, which has shrivelled since the war between Russia and Ukraine began, would finally flourish again, and he could rule without a care until he hands over power to his youngest (and favourite) son Nikolai. Will it come to this?”

Politiken focuses on the less savoury aspects of the deal:

“Belarus is also the scene of a hybrid war against Europe which includes smuggling migrants into the EU as well as contraband cigarettes in hundreds of smugglers' balloons. ... But consideration for Europe played no part in the prisoner deal reached over the weekend. It was negotiated over the EU's head and yet again underlines Donald Trump's contempt for his democratic allies. Trump simply gets on better with autocrats who have tormented people like Maria Kalesnikova and many others for years. And continue to do so. That much is clear.”

Historian Andrey Zubov outlines on Facebook how Lukashenko's star is rising:

“The Belarusian dictator has undoubtedly improved his political image and that of his regime. He is now practically regarded as a humanist and a reasonable person, especially as he has managed to refrain from interfering in Russia's war in Ukraine. ... Lifting sanctions against Belarus's most important export industry – the mining and processing of potash – will revitalise this sector, create thousands of new jobs and generate enormous revenues for the country through sales to the US and other countries. ... His willingness to negotiate with the West will boost the stability of the Lukashenko regime and reduce its dependence on the Putin regime.”

The Süddeutsche Zeitung sees the prisoners' release as a sign of the growing weakness of the Belarusian regime:

“Belarus is fighting for economic survival, and there are several reasons for this: the dictatorial, partly planned economic system, the effects of Western sanctions and the weakness of its neighbour Russia. Lukashenko is dependent on Putin, who is also battling a recession in his own country. Belarus must accept any help it can get, as it is now from the US. For the more than 1,000 political prisoners who remain in Belarus this offers fresh hope that they too will soon be released. Unfortunately, however, it also incentivises Lukashenko to take new prisoners.”

Political scientist Sergiy Taran explains Trump's motives in a Facebook post picked up by Censor.net:

“The idea behind the deal between Belarus and the US is to draw Lukashenko away from Putin and give him some room for manoeuvre. Lukashenko is prepared to play along with this game. ... Trump believes that this will give Belarus more sovereignty, which will reduce Putin's options. The US thinks that it's better to have two smaller dictators than one big one - which Putin would become were he to swallow Lukashenko's Belarus once and for all. ”