What will Le Pen's appeal achieve?
In France, Marine Le Pen's appeal trial against her conviction for misusing EU funds has begun. In the first instance, the judges ruled that the presidential candidate of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is barred from standing for election for five years - which would include the 2027 presidential election. Commentators discuss whether Jordan Bardella, the current leader of the RN party and only 30 years old, could replace her as its presidential candidate.
An opportunity rather than a blow for RN
The proceedings no longer pose a real threat to Le Pen's party, writes France correspondent Martina Meister in Die Welt:
“Because the RN has a Plan B – B for Bardella. ... Since the verdict was announced, Le Pen's political protégé Jordan Bardella has overtaken the right-wing populists' previous candidate in the polls. According to polls, an incredible 70 percent of RN supporters now see Bardella as clearly the better candidate. ... If the court upholds the first instance ruling and revokes Le Pen's passive voting rights beyond 2027, this would actually be an opportunity for the RN. The party would be spared a process in which the logical course of action would be to depose Jean-Marie Le Pen's heir and replace her with her political protégé.”
Bardella facing tricky balancing act
Bardella's candidacy would not be the ultimate solution for RN, comments Maria Frolova, a political scientist with a focus on France, in Izvestia:
“Bardella faces an unsolvable dilemma. He must be both an independent candidate (to appeal to voters outside the party's traditional base, especially among the bourgeoisie) and remain loyal to Le Pen (so that she doesn't sabotage him behind the scenes of the party machinery). If Bardella acts too independently of Le Pen, she could call on the party to vote against him. If he is too loyal, he will be perceived as a puppet rather than an independent politician. And there's another problem. Bardella is young. This can be an advantage (energy) or a disadvantage (lack of experience in decision-making in times of crisis).”
Separation of powers put to the test
France's future is at stake, historian Jérôme Perrier argues in Le Monde:
“The crucial question concerns the rule of law and whether three judges should be allowed to hold the fate of a key presidential candidate - and thus the country's political future - in their hands. Two different logics clash here. The first is that of the rule of law: it states that no one is above the law and that the separation of powers is a fundamental principle for preserving freedoms. ... The other follows a populist logic and assumes that nothing should restrict the will of the people, and that the expression of universal suffrage is a higher principle that cannot be compromised at all. There is no question that the future of our democracy is at stake in this ideological debate.”
This won't stop RN
Even Le Pen's ineligibility to stand would not diminish the success of the far right, Libération concludes:
“Although a conviction would undoubtedly restrict Marine Le Pen's personal freedom to act, the far right is unfortunately still doing well in the polls. This is evident from the success of Plan B - with Bardella, the successor to Jean-Marie Le Pen's heiress. ... If there are political consequences, these will affect the fate of the Le Pen clan, which has been at the forefront of the far right for decades and is now seeing the ground pulled from under its feet, just when the top step of the podium seems so close. ... The judiciary would be merely an instrument of an irony of history that might raise a smile but is not really a cause for celebration, given that the RN - with or without Le Pen - plays such a major role in French politics today.”