What does the future hold for Iran?
In addition to Ali Khamenei, other leading regime figures have been killed in the airstrikes on Iran. At the end of his video message, US President Donald Trump addressed the Iranian people and outlined the future of the country as follows: "Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take." The European press paints a more complex picture.
Uncontrollable momentum
Iran's future will be decided within the country, columnist Pierre Haski underlines on France Inter:
“History shows that a regime cannot be overthrown from the air alone. Israel and the US have decapitated the Iranian regime, but they have little influence on how things proceed from there. In their joy over the fall of a tyrant, Iranians may be wondering whether their country will now really be able to write a free chapter in its history. Or whether, as the last two decades in which regime change was forced from outside have shown, chaos will reign permanently, at a considerable human cost. History is literally being written before our eyes.”
Power structures prepared for Khamenei's death
La Stampa comments:
“Unlike Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Gaddafi's Libya, Assad's Syria or even Putin's Russia, the Islamic Republic is authoritarian but not dominated by a single person. The Supreme Leader embodies its theocratic face, commands the armed forces and acts as the arbiter of the system. But he operates in a context in which several, sometimes overlapping centres of power coexist. ... In addition, Khamenei was 86 years old and Iran has been preparing for a renewed attack by the US and Israel since the end of the Twelve-Day War. The death of the Supreme Leader comes as no surprise to the regime.”
The regime is not finished
The Tages-Anzeiger sees the danger of hardliners gaining strength within the circle of power:
“Even if Ali Khamenei is dead, the regime is not. The Revolutionary Guards and their affiliated paramilitary militias have effectively already taken power in Iran by brutally suppressing the recent uprisings. It is also conceivable that the hardliners within the regime will be strengthened again by the American and Israeli attacks. In addition, Iran is a multi-ethnic state with a population of over 90 million. This population is by no means homogeneous and is therefore subject to strong centrifugal forces. In addition to the Persian majority there are numerous ethnic and religious minorities, including Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochs and Turkmen.”
Between nostalgia and despair
Author Adrian Stepan comments on republica.ro:
“Iran is a country with historical memory and great pride. It asserts its Aryan roots, commemorates Cyrus, Darius and the Shahs, who believed that the emperors of Rome and China would sit at the foot of their throne. It has difficulties coming to terms with the role of the cheeky schoolboy being punished by the American 'policeman'. At the same time, the country has a young, urban society that is connected to the world and tired of prohibitions and constant revolutionary rhetoric. Every possible future plays out between these two forces - imperial nostalgia and everyday despair.”
Crown prince could divide rather than stabilise
Newsweek Polska considers the hope cherished by some that Reza Pahlavi could lead a transitional government to be unrealistic:
“Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah who was overthrown almost half a century ago, has so far been the sole figurehead of the Iranian opposition. Pahlavi junior is extremely media-savvy, maintains good relations with Israel and has announced that he could lead a transitional government until the Iranians themselves decide whether they want to return to being a monarchy or remain a republic (which would then no longer be Islamic). The crown prince's weakness is that he has no structures in his home country, so his arrival in Tehran as a knight on a white horse could further divide its society.”