US attack on Iran imminent?
After the bloody crackdown on mass protests in Iran, there are growing signs of a military reaction from the US. President Donald Trump has ordered the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying warships to be deployed to the region. Tehran has threatened to respond "immediately and powerfully" in the event of an attack. Commentators question the motives behind a military strike.
Help on the way
A US attack on Iran is imminent, says the Irish Independent:
“The ongoing protests have severely undermined the mullahs' authority, creating an environment where targeted military action could perhaps topple the government without any ground invasion. ... Following initial airstrikes, it's not inconceivable that there will be small special forces deployments into places like the nuclear site at Fordow - the opportunity to do eyes-on battle damage assessment post last June might be too good to pass up. ... Weekends present a strike option that minimises disruption to stock markets so it's possible that this Friday or next the Iranian demonstrators may finally receive the help promised by Donald Trump.”
Harsh reaction can't be ruled out
Washington wants to at least show that it is capable of carrying out an attack if it wants to, Star concludes:
“The US's primary goal does not seem to be to strike but rather to demonstrate its presence and put Iran, the players in the region and even its own allies back in their place. An attack would be an expensive option, but it remains on the table. The rapid decline in the value of the rial, the increasing dollarisation of the market and the stock market losses are undermining the regime's ability to cope. Washington's hardened stance coincides with this moment of weakness.”
Iranians expected to sacrifice themselves for Trump
Trump is not concerned about the rights of the protesting Iranians, De Standaard complains:
“For Trump, all that matters is that Iran can no longer pose a threat to Israel, the American bases in the region and oil transport. This once again highlights the American president's extreme cynicism: he wants the Iranian demonstrators to take to the streets en masse and thus weaken the regime – not to help the country find more humane leaders, but to serve the interests of his geopolitical power.”
Nuclear agreement is the real goal
A decisive strike will only follow under certain conditions, La Repubblica believes:
“The scenario is complex and suggests that Trump's priority is to obtain concessions from the ayatollahs without resorting to weapons: he is seeking a nuclear deal and a moratorium on executions of demonstrators. An attack would only take place if there were a real possibility of dealing a 'decisive blow' to the Shiite regime, the president reportedly said. If the intelligence services see an opportunity to kill Supreme Leader Khamenei or the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, the order to act could be given.”
No room for a deal
The US president faces a dilemma now, L'Obs concludes:
“If he attacks now, he risks triggering a wave of nationalism that would justify even more brutal repression. The leaders of the Gulf states have warned him that any US intervention would destabilise the entire region. If he doesn't attack, he abandons those he encouraged to rise up and delivers them right into the hands of a regime under huge pressure. ... This impasse reveals the limits of his diplomacy in the face of an uprising: it's impossible to strike a deal if the other side refuses to negotiate and the price is thousands of lives. A grieving Iran is waiting with bated breath for the unbearable uncertainty to finally come to an end.”
Human rights as a moral framework
The murdered demonstrators are not Trump's main concern here, La Stampa concludes:
“With his message yesterday on Truth, Trump gave Iran a clear ultimatum. If Tehran refuses to negotiate on its nuclear programme, the military option will be back on the table. The message makes it clear that US pressure is not aimed at ending the internal repression but at forcing a nuclear agreement. The reference to the protesters who were killed creates a moral framework, but the real goal is to limit Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons. The message has achieved its goal. Tehran has declared that it is open to dialogue, but only on a mutual respect basis, and has warned that it will respond 'like never before' if pressure is applied.”