US attack on Iran imminent?
Following the bloody crackdown on mass protests in Iran there are growing signs that a military response from the US could be imminent. US President Donald Trump has ordered the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying warships to be deployed to the region. Tehran has threatened to respond "immediately and powerfully" in the event of an attack. Commentators question the motives behind a military strike.
Nuclear agreement is the real goal
A decisive strike will only follow under certain conditions, La Repubblica believes:
“The scenario is complex and suggests that Trump's priority is to obtain concessions from the ayatollahs without resorting to weapons: he is seeking a nuclear deal and a moratorium on executions of demonstrators. An attack would only take place if there were a real possibility of dealing a 'decisive blow' to the Shiite regime, the president reportedly said. If the intelligence services see an opportunity to kill Supreme Leader Khamenei or the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, the order to act could be given.”
No room for a deal
The US president faces a dilemma now, L'Obs concludes:
“If he attacks now, he risks triggering a wave of nationalism that would justify even more brutal repression. The leaders of the Gulf states have warned him that any US intervention would destabilise the entire region. If he doesn't attack, he abandons those he encouraged to rise up and delivers them right into the hands of a regime under huge pressure. ... This impasse reveals the limits of his diplomacy in the face of an uprising: it's impossible to strike a deal if the other side refuses to negotiate and the price is thousands of lives. A grieving Iran is waiting with bated breath for the unbearable uncertainty to finally come to an end.”
Human rights as a moral framework
The murdered demonstrators are not Trump's main concern here, La Stampa concludes:
“With his message yesterday on Truth, Trump gave Iran a clear ultimatum. If Tehran refuses to negotiate on its nuclear programme, the military option will be back on the table. The message makes it clear that US pressure is not aimed at ending the internal repression but at forcing a nuclear agreement. The reference to the protesters who were killed creates a moral framework, but the real goal is to limit Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons. The message has achieved its goal. Tehran has declared that it is open to dialogue, but only on a mutual respect basis, and has warned that it will respond 'like never before' if pressure is applied.”