Can Trump really end the Iran war "very soon"?
There are unclear signals as to how long this should continue: on Monday US President Donald Trump said it would end "very soon", but shortly afterwards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement saying that they were "not done yet". The air strikes on Iran intensified on Tuesday, and Tehran also continued its attacks on Israel and the Gulf states. Europe's press casts about for realistic exit scenarios.
Mounting pressure on the US president
It won't be long before Trump runs out of steam, Jutarnji list predicts:
“The likelihood of Trump really waging war against Iran for months on end is slim. He is under intense pressure from the American business community, his own family included, as stock prices fall, and from Republicans and the public as fuel prices rise. He's under pressure from China, as the crisis in Iran is causing unintended economic problems there, and from Gulf states as they come under Iranian attack and suffer damage. ... The analysis firm Teneo says it is increasingly likely that Trump will unilaterally declare that the US has achieved its goals, for example by stating that Iran's military capabilities have been set back by 5 to 10 years.”
Putin can't be trusted as mediator
Sociologist Igor Eidman warns on Facebook against involving Russia as a mediator:
“The state of war gives Putin enormous advantages. First of all, oil prices have risen. ... This is a real lifeline for Russia's collapsing budget. Second, America is beginning to become dependent on Russia. Trump is begging Putin to persuade the ayatollahs to at least pretend to make some concessions so that he can extricate himself from the war. But it's not in Putin's interest to give Trump this opportunity. ... That's why he will promise to help Trump and sell it to him in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but in reality he'll help the ayatollahs and convince them not to make any concessions and to continue the war.”
Oil as a powerful weapon
The world's dependence on oil is giving Iran massive leverage, De Telegraaf observes:
“Time is ticking for Trump now that the oil markets are in turmoil and there is still no solution for safely escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The president is coming under growing pressure in his own country and said this week that the conflict could be over pretty quickly. But there's a major danger lurking here too: if America bows to Iran's oil weapon, it means that the ayatollahs will be able to use it at will in the future: a frightening prospect for the Gulf states and the rest of the world.”
Colder and colder feet
The US president is backing down in view of rising oil and falling share prices, the Aargauer Zeitung comments:
“Even Trump is no match for the markets. When share prices and US government bonds fell after his tariff crackdown in April 2025, the president immediately backtracked. And now, in the Iran war, this phenomenon is repeating itself. 'Taco' - Trump Always Chickens Out in the end. After oil prices rose by around 50 percent and share prices plummeted on Monday, Trump got cold feet. He knows that his voters will not forgive him for higher prices at the petrol pump and lower valuations of their retirement assets. ... Typical Trump.”
Pressure from the Gulf states
The states in the region will try to persuade Trump to end the war, columnist Pierre Haski writes on France Inter:
“In recent years the Gulf states have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in investment and are closely linked to US economic interests, in particular those of the Trump family. The Gulf states could use their financial leverage to make it clear to the US president that the costs will rise every day if he does not end the war. ... Today the Gulf monarchies, including the Emirates, are calling for an end to the war. ... They need to restore their badly tarnished image. ... Trump is listening, but will he understand what they're saying?”
Already a victory for the US president
Blogger Karl Volokh comments in a Facebook post republished by Espreso:
“Since this war does not involve any ground operations, it can be ended relatively easily - simply by stopping the attacks. ... Both this fact and the results achieved by the coalition forces in Iran already allow Trump to portray this operation as a resounding victory: Iran's nuclear programme has suffered a significant setback, the missile programme has been hit hard, the financial resources for supporting regional proxies have been undermined, the air force, air defence and navy have been almost completely destroyed, other branches of the military have been weakened, and the repressive state institutions have sustained considerable damage.”
No goals achieved yet
Ending the war at this point could be seen as a failure for Trump, journalist Dmitry Kolezev explains in a Telegram post reposted by Echo:
“If it ends now, the Iranians will undoubtedly say that the US has suffered a defeat: none of the operational objectives have been achieved. Khamenei was killed, the fleet was sunk and missile factories were bombed. But the latter can be rebuilt, and the regime is still standing, Khamenei has been politically reincarnated in his son, there have been no significant protests, the Kurds have not marched on Tehran, 460 kilograms of uranium remain under the control of the Revolutionary Guards, the nuclear programme has not been halted, and no one has waved a white flag to request negotiations.”
Risk of an epic failure
Donald Trump will have a tough time extricating himself from this war, says the Financial Times:
“Trump has an almost unique capacity for claiming victory, even when he has clearly lost. ...But simply declaring victory in Iran and walking away may not be straightforward. There are around 40,000 American troops in the region, as well as military bases, economic assets and vulnerable allies. Trump was able to start this war at a time of his own choosing. He may not be able to end it on the same terms. Operation Epic Fury risks turning into an epic failure.”
Fight until the regime falls
The US and Israel must not let up, says The Times:
“People may believe they were lied to over the threat from Iraq. But it is idiotic and foolish to assume therefore that they are being lied to over the threat from Iran, which has killed thousands of Americans, Brits and others in the war it has waged against the West since the regime took power in 1979. ...This war could be seen as utterly reckless - unless the alternative is fully understood. Then it becomes utterly imperative, and essential that it is pursued until the Iranian Islamic regime is no more.”