Multi-billion EU loan: how much will it help Ukraine?

Journalist Vitaly Portnikov writes in a Facebook post republished by NV:

“We are caught in a vicious circle: our transit status brings us money from the West – because the West has to compensate for the fact that Hungary and Slovakia are buying Russian oil, thereby prolonging the war. However, part of the benefit of this income is cancelled out by the fact that Russia profits from transit through our territory and can continue the war. This means that the West is simultaneously financing our defence and part of Putin's war machine. And this will remain the case in 2026, 2027 and 2028 – unless this model is changed.”

Sydsvenskan calls for a more sustainable solution:

“However, the EU continues to face the risk that individual member states will abuse their right of veto, as Hungary did in the past. Things can't go on like this in the long term – the EU is facing a huge challenge and a solution needs to be found. Ultimately, urgent action was required to release the loan for Ukraine's defence. ... Despite its mistakes and shortcomings, the EU is now demonstrating that it can resolve even the most difficult problems. And that Ukraine can count on Europe – at least until it needs another loan, when some [countries] will no doubt start kicking up a fuss again.”

János Bóka, Viktor Orbán’s outgoing Minister for European Affairs, argues on Facebook that the Hungarian government acted correctly:

“If Hungary had not blocked the 90-billion-euro EU loan facility intended for Ukraine, the transport of oil via the Druzhba pipeline would never have resumed. Hungary's tactic worked: the Ukrainians ran out of money before we ran out of oil. ... Asserting Hungarian interests means accepting that some conflicts are unavoidable, controllable and productive. Not every conflict is like this, but the conflict that developed around the Ukrainian oil blockade was clearly such a case.”

Der Standard calls for Europe to use Russia's frozen assets to support Ukraine:

“Ukraine can only briefly catch its breath. A new European Commission report reveals that Kyiv is still short of 20 billion euros for defence this year – despite the European loan, which is secured by EU bonds on the capital markets. It is unclear where further funds should come from. One option would be to finally make Russia, the instigator of the war, bear more of the financial burden. After all, EU member states have held hundreds of billions of euros in frozen Russian assets for years. Using these funds – a proposal already discussed late last year – would secure Ukraine's defence for years to come.”

The EU at least has something to show for its efforts now, says La Stampa:

“The double signal came yesterday around midday. ... The Hungarian and Slovak ambassadors gave the green light for the written procedure to begin on the final approval of the 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine and the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, which had been blocked for two months. ... Provided no government raises objections – which, several EU sources say, is unlikely – European leaders will be able to celebrate this double 'success' this evening on the first day of their informal summit in Cyprus, which will kick off with a speech by Volodymyr Zelensky. This is face-saving news at a summit where much will be discussed but little decided.”

With raised eyebrows, the Weltwoche comments on the sudden flow of oil through the pipeline in the wake of Orbán's defeat:

“Wonder of wonders! For months Ukraine blocked access to the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which oil flowed from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia, on the pretext that it had been damaged in a Russian strike. In Budapest and Bratislava it was assumed that Kyiv was doing this to influence the elections. And they were not wrong. No sooner was Orbán voted out than the pipeline repaired itself overnight. And it's not only oil that is flowing freely now, but money too. ... Only a cynic would smell a rat here. After all, miracles happen all the time. Even pipelines can repair themselves.”

Denník Postoj shows understanding for Ukraine:

“Oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline were interrupted by Russian air strikes. ... A certain inflexibility, even reluctance, on the part of Ukraine to undertake the repairs and restore the flow of oil was understandable given its objectives. If the enemy is financing the war against you using infrastructure that runs through your own territory, why on earth would you pay attention to its upkeep? Particularly when two countries (Hungary and Slovakia) are at the other end of the oil pipeline who, at least verbally, are more sympathetic to the enemy than to you yourself.”

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung explains why the oil is suddenly flowing:

“The plumbing on the pipeline was obviously linked to a political time frame. ... Viktor Orbán and his pro-Russian agenda have been voted out. ... What's surprising is that Orbán is actually sticking to his word: when the oil flows, he gives the green light. This does nothing to change the fact that he has opposed Ukraine since 2014 and behaved treacherously within the EU. But it is also true that Kyiv can be decidedly ham-fisted in the way it pursues its interests, sometimes even towards countries it would be better off winning as partners. We shouldn't let Zelensky get away with everything.”

The EU should have asked Kyiv for proof that the pipeline was damaged, Pravda writes:

“Viktor Orbán blocked a 90-billion-euro EU loan to Ukraine. The EU leaders were angry at Budapest, rebuked Orbán, yet they did not ask Zelensky to prove that the pipeline was damaged. In a fact-based society, this would have been standard procedure, but it was not. ... So what was the point of this whole 'war' over the Druzhba oil pipeline? To punish Putin? To bring about Orbán's defeat? Neither of the above. It was just Zelensky flexing his muscles. While EU leaders stood by obediently and watched.”