UAE exits Opec: winners and losers?
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced that it will withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) on 1 May 2026. For Opec, this means losing the world's third-largest oil producer. No longer bound by the cartel's agreements, UAE will be able to massively ramp up production. Commentators examine the implications for oil prices and the balance of power among the major oil-producing nations.
Excellent news for the US
Opec is losing influence, notes El Mundo:
“Four out of ten barrels of oil consumed worldwide come from Opec, but the recent rise in US exports has threatened its dominance and exacerbated existing tensions. Following the withdrawal of three smaller countries – Qatar in 2019, Ecuador in 2020 and Angola in 2024 – the departure of a member that can produce 4.8 million barrels a day further complicates Opec's future. The group's declining influence aligns perfectly with Donald Trump's goal of cementing the US as the world's top exporter of crude oil, but at the same time it introduces a structural shift in the market, the consequences of which remain unclear.”
Price war between new alliances inevitable
Now begins the era of oil price dumping, predicts Trends-Tendances:
“Other countries may follow suit. ... Opec is in danger of becoming a small club heavily dominated by Saudi Arabia. And a price war is inevitable. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens – which it will – the Emirates will maximise their production capacity. Saudi Arabia will retaliate. If there's too much oil on the market, prices will collapse. Last time, in 2020, the price per barrel dropped below 20 US dollars. … The bottom line? The Middle East will never be the same again. Everyone is busy sorting out their partners: who will protect me, who will buy from me, who will let me down. Sixty-six years after its founding, OPEC may well have just signed its own death warrant.”
The cartel cannot be written off
The cartel remains in a strong position, the Financial Times counters:
“The cartel's influence has long been waning due to oil's declining share of the global energy mix and Opec's declining share of world output thanks to the US shale revolution and rising production in countries such as Canada, Brazil and Guyana. … Opec cannot, of course, be written off. The UAE exit is a fundamental fracture but Opec has survived the departures in recent years of Qatar, Angola and Ecuador. Its remaining members still sit on almost 75 per cent of global proven crude reserves, with extraction costs that most non-Opec countries cannot match – positioning it well for a world of falling demand.”
Abu Dhabi declares independence
This move is less about energy issues than a declaration of geopolitical independence, writes Sabah:
“The United Arab Emirates no longer sees itself merely as a Gulf state but as a global logistics and financial hub at the epicentre of new trade routes stretching from India to Europe. This is why the UAE now wants to manage its production capacity according to its own national interests, rather than remaining bound by Opec's quota discipline. Saudi Arabia's approach to price control and the UAE's understanding of market share and freedom of investment have long since diverged. Withdrawing from Opec is a strategic declaration of independence for the UAE.”
A fragile structure threatening to implode
Der Standard sees the withdrawal as
“a vote of no confidence in a system that thrived for decades by concealing internal rivalries behind closed doors. ... For Opec, this means less power, less discipline, less credibility. Cartels only work if members prioritise common interests over national ones. For a long time, this ensured stability on the global markets. It is precisely this stability that is increasingly lacking. ... Then throw in the geopolitical powder keg. Opec was never just an economic organisation. It was always a political balancing act between Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the smaller Gulf states. This fragile structure now seems to be imploding definitively.”