Ukraine war: should Europe mediate?
Russia has been waging a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine since 2022 and so far all attempts at negotiations have failed to end the conflict. Ukraine is currently stepping up its attacks on targets in Russia, and the Russian economy is showing growing signs of weakness. Commentators discuss whether this might be an auspicious moment for Europe to take the initiative in negotiations.
An opportunity too good to ignore
De Morgen sees promising signs of weakness in Moscow:
“The atmosphere of disillusionment and hopelessness in Russia that is increasingly being described by experts sounds a little like the gerontocracy of the 70s and 80s at the end of communism. ... If there is any truth to this, then the EU cannot let this opportunity pass. It must demand a place at the negotiating table for the peace talks on Ukraine. ... We must also fully prepare ourselves for the post-Putin era and start thinking now about who we need to strike deals with the moment he lands on the scrapheap of military history.”
Moscow would pit countries against one another
For NRC columnist Caroline De Gruyter, Europe is too divided to stand up to Putin:
“Europe should not enter negotiations with Putin, because there is not a single issue that it can agree on internally. One countermove from the Kremlin and all 27 member states would be flapping around the henhouse, squawking loudly. Putin would ruthlessly play them off against each other. This is the last thing Ukraine needs. ... In 2027 there will be elections in Spain, France, Poland and Italy, which could reshuffle the cards in European politics. This is another reason why Europe cannot be a capable negotiation partner and should get off its high horse.”
Germany could buckle
Polityka doubts that the West has what it takes to really tighten the screws on Russia:
“The Russian economy is indeed hurtling towards collapse. ... If Europe can sit it out, the economic crisis could soften the Kremlin's hard stance and have a dramatic impact on its willingness to make concessions. But it may never come to this. All the Kremlin needs to do is try to scare the West – for example, the Germans, who are sensitive to economic arguments – with nightmare scenarios of a Russian economic implosion. The argument would be that a crisis in Russia would also threaten Europe. The solution? Just open up to Russia.”
Putin still believes in victory
Negotiations are pointless, Corriere della Sera declares:
“Anyone hoping for Ukrainian drones to have a deterrent effect and for Putin to scale back his demands will be sorely disappointed. The Russian President is convinced that he can achieve on the ground what Donald Trump promised him in Anchorage, without first listening to Kyiv's views on the cession of the part of the region still under its control. He made this very clear yesterday by reiterating that while a political and diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict would be desirable, the West – and Europe in particular – is preventing this and is intent on inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.”
Russian opposition must be involved
In a Telegram post republished by Echo, Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky calls on Europe to involve the Russian opposition in exile in its efforts:
“The Putin regime poses a threat not only to Ukraine and not only to Russian citizens. It is a threat to the entire European security system. That is why those who are fighting for a democratic, peaceful Russia governed by the rule of law are Europe's natural allies. It is precisely for this reason that we do not need a one-off contact, but rather a permanent mechanism for cooperation with the European Parliament: regular dialogue, collaborative work on concrete solutions and political coordination on issues where our interests coincide.”