Air defence shortages: can Ukraine hold out?
With little movement on the front lines in Ukraine, both sides are focusing their efforts on air strikes: Ukraine has decimated capacities at oil refineries in Russia with its drone attacks, dealing a severe blow to online retail and paralysing shipping traffic along the southern coast. Meanwhile, Moscow has launched massive missile strikes in Ukrainian cities: on Wednesday 17 people were killed in attacks on logistics centres in the Kyiv area.
Interceptors used up
The Spectator worries about Ukraine's increasingly unprotected airspace:
“Ukraine's inability to stop incoming ballistic missiles – especially Zircon and Kindzhal hypersonic missiles that [are said to] travel at up to nine times the speed of sound – is a fundamental strategic flaw that the Kremlin is exploiting mercilessly. ... That the skies over Ukraine are now open to ballistic attack is [due to the fact] that Kyiv's arsenal of US-made PAC-3 Patriot interceptors is used up – and there's little prospect of any more coming because the US has used up almost all its own reserves defending against Iranian missiles.”
Achilles's heel must be protected
Political scientist Alvydas Medalinskas warns on LRT:
“Of course, Ukraine has dealt a severe blow to Putin's Russia. Crimea remains pretty isolated and more than 40 percent of the Russian oil industry has been paralysed. The war has entered a phase of mutual testing of strength. Both sides are dealing each other significant blows. ... Yet while acknowledging Ukraine's strength, we must not overlook its Achilles' heel: ballistic missile defence. If the necessary measures are not taken swiftly in this area, the tide of the war could turn once again, to the detriment of Ukraine and the West.”
Perseverance is the watchword
Jyllands-Posten takes a sombre view:
“Perseverance is what this is all about, whether we turn our gaze to the sorely tested people of Ukraine or the conference rooms where Europe's political leaders are trying to keep the flag flying. ... The war, now entering its fifth year, looks set to be a long one. There are many indications that maintaining support for Ukraine and establishing a stable security order for Ukraine and Europe will be an arduous process. There is no indication that a peace agreement or a peace-like settlement is in the offing. In short: the Ukrainians will withstand the pressure, and the pressure on Putin is not sufficient make him buckle.”
Detrimental success
The attacks on Russia are not helping Ukraine's international image, observes Népszava:
“International opinion polls show that more and more people see President Zelensky, who is keeping Ukraine's defensive war going, as being just as bad as Putin; his initial (and, to date, well-deserved) image as a hero is fading. ... More and more people are rejecting not only accelerated EU integration for Ukraine, but also support for its defensive war in the form of weapons and money. The formidable Ukrainian armed forces, which have managed to set oil refineries, warehouses, airfields and other facilities across Russia ablaze, are no longer helping to strengthen solidarity with Ukraine.”
An endgame with a high price tag
In a Telegram post picked up by Echo, political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov compares the war to a game of chess:
“Russia still has too many pieces on the board to resign – it even has enough pawns left to mount a counter-attack. ... Right now Russia has a clear asymmetric advantage against Ukraine: ballistic missiles capable of penetrating the air defence systems around Kyiv. This makes Kyiv and its inhabitants hostages to the situation. ... But this endgame comes at a price, and it will be a very high and bloody one. Because Ukraine is playing against a grandmaster from the same school of chess, who readily takes his own people hostage and who is completely indifferent to how many more people he sacrifices on the altar of war.”