Is the drone in Leipzig part of Moscow's hybrid war?
A drone carrying explosives was discovered at Leipzig airport on Tuesday. It was located near a large cargo aircraft belonging to Ukraine's Antonov Airlines, which since 2022 has been using the German airport instead of Kyiv as its hub. Europe's media discuss Russia as the main suspect and assess the seriousness of the threat.
Russia training in acts of sabotage
In a Telegram post republished by Echo, political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov speculates on whether Europe will retaliate:
“It seems to me that Russia is in an intense training phase. The incident in Leipzig reveals more about the Kremlin's plans than dozens of theoretical models ever could. ... I assume that Putin is fundamentally more inclined towards the logic of special operations than that of military operations, and that he would prefer to launch an asymmetric move against Europe. ... I think the term 'sabotage' will soon be prominent in Europe's political lexicon once more. The only question I have in this context is: will this be followed by a symmetrical response?”
Only suspicions at this stage
We must not jump to conclusions, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung warns:
“The type of explosive suggests state actors, or at least state-backed actors; the proximity of a drone to Ukrainian aircraft points to Russia. But these are clues, not certainties. The state must be absolutely certain. This is a matter of far-reaching foreign policy significance. Should Nato respond? Should further sanctions be imposed on the country? These are not trivial matters.”
Be better prepared for hybrid warfare
The concept of defence capabilities must be understood in a broader sense, Handelsblatt warns:
“A comprehensive defence system can only function if critical infrastructure – airports, water and energy suppliers, telecommunications providers, hospitals and the food industry – is effectively protected against hybrid attacks. Perhaps Germany should follow Taiwan's example. As part of a major military exercise, the Asian island-nation is currently upping its civil defence capacities so as to be prepared for an attack by China. Among the emergency scenarios is a mobile phone network failure. This, too, is a hybrid attack scenario that would probably cause considerable chaos here in Germany, and for which the country is inadequately prepared.”
A serious threat, but not cause for panic
Iltalehti calls for measures to strengthen security:
“Even though the situation is unusual and even threatening, there is no cause for panic. We must constantly remind ourselves of this because one of the goals of hybrid operations is to infiltrate people's minds and stir up fear. ... The drone in Leipzig was hardly a declaration of war on Germany, but it served as a reminder that the war in Ukraine is not merely a war within Ukraine. The technologies and tactics seen in Ukraine are also spreading to the airspace and infrastructure of other European countries.”
Europe should realise what's going on
Even without attacking its borders, Moscow has long since been waging a war against Europe, writes Unian:
“Russia is trying to shift the war into Europe's hinterland in a way that allows Europeans to continue to convince themselves that there is no war on their territory. In reality, it arrived long ago – in the form of acts of sabotage, espionage, arson, explosive devices, cyber-attacks and attempts to intimidate those who are helping Ukraine. The question, therefore, is no longer whether the Kremlin is waging a hybrid war against Europe, but rather how many more warning signs European capitals need before they switch from reacting to individual incidents to implementing systematic counter-espionage measures.”
Clueless disposable agents
Latvijas Avīze speculates on string-pullers and perpetrators:
“The powerful explosive Semtex is only available to national armies and, possibly, well-organised terrorist groups, but not to amateurs. ... For such sabotage operations, the Russian secret services usually recruit so-called 'low-level agents' – also known as 'disposable agents' – via social media. They find someone who is willing to carry out the required task for a relatively small fee. The client remains anonymous, and the perpetrator is not even informed about the purpose of the mission.”