How real is the threat of war in Europe?
A growing number of official bodies are warning of the possibility of Russia launching military operations against Europe. Germany's Federal Intelligence Service said on Monday that there was an increased risk of hybrid attacks by Moscow, and Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken has said the continent faces a "dark winter" and called for drone defence to become top priority. Denmark's intelligence service has also warned of the growing risk of a limited military attack on a Nato country in the coming months.
Disinformation and panic-mongering
Moscow is using intimidation tactics, warns Der Standard:
“Russia is no longer merely pressing its most dangerous weapon against our foreheads – it has long since pulled the trigger. Its disinformation has been corroding European minds for years now, sowing doubts about Ukraine's independence – as if it were up to Moscow to decide who governs there and whether or not the country joins Nato. Worse still, Moscow's fifth column equates perpetrators with victims and stokes fears about an enraged Russia lashing out against Berlin and Vienna if it is further provoked. ... The reasoning behind this is simple: people who feel threatened will think twice before sending weapons to Ukraine.”
Putin targeting German trauma
Putin's war threats land on particularly fertile soil in Germany, writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
“Whereas the war is a political instrument for Putin, for the Germans it must be avoided at any price. The traumas inflicted by two world wars and the Nazi regime run deep, shaping public opinion and security policy decisions to this day. Germans are no more than moderately willing to take up arms to defend the nation. ... Putin is also stepping up his hybrid war as a way to get the political parties in Germany to demand an end to support for Ukraine. This, too, is meant to fuel the Germans' fear of war and undermine their already limited spirit of resistance.”
Moscow holds the trump cards for now
Political analyst Kirill Rogov warns on Facebook about the Russian weapons that could potentially overwhelm Europe:
“Moscow has expanded its arsenal of missile-type weapons. ... This development increases the threat not just for Ukraine, but also for Europe, which right now is virtually defenceless against such missile and drone attacks. With time, Europe will mobilise its resources and develop a response to the challenges from the air. But precisely this increases the incentive for the Kremlin to use this temporary 'window of opportunity' to test Europe's mettle. In other words, it increases the likelihood of an imminent escalation by the Kremlin on the European stage.”
Perilous period ahead of mid-terms
ERR warns:
“Nuclear weapons are Russia's last resort. Conventional weapons will never be enough to defeat Ukraine, let alone prevail in a conflict that pits it against the whole of Europe. But before that, it will test the effectiveness of hybrid means like sabotage, assassinations, electoral interference, etc. The aim is to intimidate Europeans enough to make them either end or at least reduce their support for Ukraine. A perilous period lies ahead. Russia might feel compelled to take some sort of action against Europe ahead of next month's mid-term elections in the US. Because these elections could drastically change Washington's attitude towards Russia, which until now has been very tolerant.”
Zero tolerance for border provocations
According to reports from Latvia, armed individuals attempted to smuggle a group of migrants from Belarus into the country on Wednesday. Shortly afterwards, masked men reportedly entered EU territory illegally, damaging electricity distribution boxes and stealing CCTV cameras in the process. Delfi calls for effective border protection measures for Latvia and Estonia:
“This kind of hybrid pressure fits the picture of the Putin camp and its determination to provoke problems in the West, which supports Ukraine. All it takes is for organised criminal groups to go about their business while the Belarusian authorities turn a blind eye. ... Latvia's border must be reinforced to ensure that such provocations fail next time. At the same time it serves as a warning to Estonia – our eastern border must also hold firm. It must be rapidly upgraded into a military protection zone.”