Finland: parliament votes for Nato accession
The Finnish parliament voted in favour of joining Nato by 184 votes to 7 on Wednesday. But Finland, like Sweden, is still waiting for Alliance members Hungary and Turkey to approve their accession. What are the chances of these two states lifting their blockade?
On its own if necessary
Gazeta Wyborcza sees Finland under particular pressure because of its long border with Russia:
“In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, Sweden and Finland simultaneously applied to join the Alliance last May. The governments of both countries reiterate to this day that they would like to join the Alliance at the same time, but the Finns - with their 1,340-kilometre-long border with Russia - are increasingly signalling that they will do so on their own should Sweden face protracted accession difficulties. The vote in the Finnish parliament could turn out to be a step in this direction.”
Security guarantees are not enough
Etelä-Suomen Sanomat takes the the two states blocking accession to task:
“After Turkish President Erdoğan opened his bazaar last summer, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is now playing his own game, to such an extent that Prime Minister Sanna Marin already questioned whether Nato really has its doors open at a meeting with Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Helsinki on Tuesday. Stoltenberg pointed out that in principle the countries were already sitting at the Nato table, protected by the security guarantees of several member states. ... But that still doesn't give Finland and Sweden the status that only full membership in Nato would grant them.”
Erdoğan will give the green light after the elections
Ankara will stop blocking Nato accession after the elections if not sooner, Yetkin Report predicts:
“If Erdoğan wins the elections, Nato membership will be agreed on first for Finland and then for Sweden, or perhaps for both at the same time, at the summit in Vilnius [in July]. Even if Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu repeats today that Turkey will not give its approval as long as Sweden fails to meet its demands, it seems likely that Erdoğan's opposition to the US will end in reconciliation. And if Erdoğan loses? The Table of Six [the Turkish opposition alliance] has already promised to move forward both in the fight against terror and relations with the West, and especially with the European Union.”