Runoff in Poland: what's at stake?
Poles will head to the polls on Sunday to choose between the liberal Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski and right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki as their next president. In the first round of voting the two candidates were almost neck and neck, with roughly 31 and 30 percent of the vote, respectively. Several far-right politicians were surprisingly successful and their votes will now be crucial. Commentators see repercussions far beyond Poland.
A lot riding on this for Brussels and Kyiv
Both the EU and Ukraine are counting on Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski winning, Radio Kommersant explains:
“The stakes in the second round of the Polish elections are higher than ever for both Brussels and Kyiv. They can only hope for a repeat of the 'Romanian miracle' - the victory of a politician committed to the principles and values of the European Union. As was the case in Romania, it is the mayor of the capital city who has assumed this role in Poland. On 1 June, all hopes in Brussels and Kyiv will be pinned on Warsaw's mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.”
A new kind of solidarity
A victory for Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski could trigger a wave of re-democratisation in Eastern Europe, says Contributors:
“The Romanian precedent could be repeated on 1 June if pro-European candidate Rafał Trzaskowski wins the second round of the presidential election in Poland. ... Such a double victory in Romania and Poland could herald a new phase in Eastern Europe's development. ... The truly remarkable thing about the potential of this new wave of re-democratisation is that it is not just the result of societies learning from each other. In these times the elections in Central and Eastern Europe represent a new kind of solidarity: a process of transnational support between political leaders with liberal visions and liberal orientations.”
Stoking anti-Ukrainian sentiment
European Pravda sees anti-Ukrainian rhetoric gaining traction in the Polish presidential election campaign:
“In today's Poland, speaking out in support of Ukrainians means putting your political future at risk. Fifty-six percent of Poles want Ukrainians to return to their country after the war. Although the word 'Ukrainian' is often associated with hard work, it is also associated with ungratefulness and excessive demands. Stoking anti-Ukrainian sentiment has become the new political trend. Even if one assumes that the election campaign is driven by self-interest and that the rhetoric will tone down afterwards, Ukrainians in Poland are already noticing a deterioration in attitudes towards them.”