Ukraine war: any chance of a negotiated solution?
After a second round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on 2 June in Istanbul, another prisoner swap has been agreed but the two countries are no closer to a ceasefire. European commentators discuss what steps could end the war.
Torpedo the playing for time strategy
Avvenire makes the case for a step-by-step approach:
“The best idea is to calibrate the pressure on Vladimir Putin, in particular to overcome one of the main obstacles blocking the negotiation process, namely the idea that time is working in Moscow's favour. ... This plan would include a new air and missile defence package for Kyiv (if cities are protected, the offensive will be less effective) and a step-by-step seizure of frozen Russian funds and assets for as long as the Kremlin refuses to negotiate on an equal footing. ... The aim of this tactic is not to escalate the war, but to destabilise Russia's military-industrial complex and make clear that negotiations would also benefit the aggressor.”
Sanctions starting to work
The pressure on Putin must be maintained, writes Russia expert Zoltán Sz. Bíró in Élet és Irodalom:
“It's clear that this year [Russia's economy] is by no means doing as well as in previous years. But that doesn't mean that the Russian economy will collapse in the short term. At the same time, Putin must now reckon with far more limited opportunities than before. The sanctions are gradually beginning to have an ever stronger impact. Under these circumstances it would be a serious mistake to release Russia from the pressure of sanctions. As the last few years have shown, Putin's autocracy only understands the language of might. It's time Trump finally realised this too.”
Scorched earth not enough for Putin
Russia's lacking willingness to negotiate is due to the the current situation on the front, observes journalist and Ukrainian MP Mykola Knjaschyzkyj in Espreso:
“Putin sees the war ending only in the context of his own victory. However, halting the war at the front line as it stands now would not ensure such a victory. In this case, Russia would only be left with scorched Ukrainian land under its control – the occupier of an area where no one and nothing remains which could be passed off as a victory to Russian society. The occupation of Bakhmut is not reason enough for a parade in Red Square.”
Not hope, only security
Ukraine expert Balázs Jarábik in Új Szó analyses the logic of fear and its potential consequences:
“While Europe sees the return of Trump as the greatest strategic challenge, the war has taken on a new dimension. The military situation, diplomatic manoeuvres and strategic threats are intensifying. Concerns about the vulnerability of nuclear infrastructure are reinforcing the logic of fear, especially since the attack on Russian strategic aircraft. This fear – and not a victory – might ultimately be the only factor that forces the warring parties to reach a compromise. A peace that offers not hope, but 'only' security.”