Israel-Iran: ceasefire after Trump rebuke?
Israel and Iran appear to be observing the ceasefire announced by Donald Trump on Tuesday after several days of the two countries exchanging rocket fire and unusually harsh criticism of their respective leaders by the US president. Europe's press comments on the display of power from Washington and discusses what should follow.
One and a half wild beasts tamed
Donald Trump's strategising has brought the brief Iran war to an end, writes Visão:
“The successive killings of senior military figures – as had already happened with Hezbollah – provoked the greatest fear [in Iran]: that Israel and the US knew exactly where everyone was. This is an unsustainable vulnerability for a regime that is built on instilling fear in everyone. Weak, insecure and defeated, Iran has ended the military confrontation. If it re-emerges, it will lack both strength and credibility. ... Trump has achieved the seemingly impossible – he has calmed two wild beasts, or one and a half – and the ceasefire is clearly thanks to him and the influence he wields with Israel's government and prime minister.”
Americans may pay dearly for Trump's success
Democracy in the US could now be even more under threat, Kronen Zeitung warns:
“Donald Trump is at the height of his power. ... He has restored the self-confidence of the nation and the US Army after decades of losing war after war. This success has rendered Trump immune to domestic critics who are calling the attack a violation of the constitution. As a great victor, the 'Triumphator' poses an even greater threat to democracy. He shares this role with Netanyahu.”
Will Arab countries reposition themselves?
Fear of Iran has prompted certain Arab countries to sign or seek a peace treaty with Israel in recent years. In Postimees, Erkki Bahovski, editor of the opinion section, reflects on whether this approach has become obsolete:
“Now, of course, the question arises: if the Ayatollah regime has been weakened by the Israeli and US attacks, does it still make sense for the Arab countries to seek better relations with Israel? But a wise man does not jump to conclusions. ... Although the Israeli and US bombings have clearly damaged some of Iran's nuclear facilities, the short-lived nature of this conflict probably indicates that there will be no change of regime in Iran.”
He who decides on war and peace
Trump's actions raise concerns about the world order, writes columnist Pierre Haski in France Inter:
“Donald Trump will be able to boast non-stop that, unlike his predecessors, he used maximum force against Iran, and that when the confrontation ended he was just and magnanimous. The political gains he reaps are obvious. ... And beyond that he has made it crystal clear that it is he, Donald Trump, who from now on decides whether there is war or peace in the world. This is certainly not good news for the world order – even if today we can rejoice when this war is actually over.”
An idiot and a genius
Trump is not so easy to pigeonhole, Večernji list observes:
“In so many of Trump's actions we see idiocy or a total inability to understand the serious consequences of what he is doing. But at the same time they have a glimmer of genius, leading to results that one can't but admit have a certain value. ... An idiot for making such a risky move in the Middle East without any strategy. ... A genius because he may have untangled the Gordian knot of the threat posed by Iran's decades-old nuclear programme. ... It could be that he has solved the problem more quickly and efficiently than could have been achieved by any diplomatic solution.”
Relaunch talks asap
The military successes will achieve nothing without political solutions, De Volkskrant warns:
“The diplomatic talks about the Iranian nuclear programme must be reopened as soon as possible. It's time to exploit Iran's weakened position to rein in its nuclear programme. The Americans must take the lead here. They are only only ones who can credibly put pressure on Israel and Iran. Regrettably, Donald Trump has shown himself to be an unpredictable and unreliable negotiating partner to date. The air strikes on Fordo on the heels of the Israeli attack are one thing – finding a political solution that makes the world safer again is quite another.”
Political upheaval ahead
The Tages-Anzeiger suspects it knows who will try to seize power in Iran:
“The Islamic Republic is not some make-believe giant like the Assad regime; its survival depends on the Revolutionary Guard. This army will recognise that the path taken so far is not leading anywhere. It is the main power bloc alongside the clerics, and it will prepare itself. It could usurp the mullahs officially or in the shadows. The country would then become a military dictatorship, a new autocracy. ... The war has made it more likely that something will change in Iran – be it through some form of insider putsch or, at some point, a revolution. ”
Time to think about toppling the regime
Rzeczpospolita reflects:
“The only path to lasting peace would probably entail toppling the theocratic regime in Iran. George H.W. Bush faced a similar dilemma after the success of operation Desert Storm and the liberation of Kuwait in 1991. At the time he decided not to take further steps to oust Saddam Hussein. Twelve years later America had to invade Iraq a second time, and ultimately faced defeat. Trump has no doubt reflected on this history lesson.”
EU watching from the sidelines again
The EU has little to say in the matter, writes a disappointed Jutarnji list:
“Some things in the EU are simply irreparable, at least in the current constellation. ... A crisis begins and ends again before the EU agrees on how to respond. ... The Middle East is far away from America and closer to the EU. Europe will certainly be impacted more by the consequences and tensions in this region. But the EU will have to change its conduct if it wants more influence in a region in which, until now, it has displayed nothing but diplomatic and political ineptitude.”