France: Bayrou government faces collapse
French Prime Minister François Bayrou will ask National Assembly for a vote of confidence in his government today. After less than nine months in office, Bayrou is expected to lose the vote since the opposition has made it clear that it is no longer willing to support his minority government. The key issue is Bayrou's controversial austerity budget for combating the French debt crisis. Europe's media debate the causes, consequences and potential solutions.
Ultimately Macron is responsible for this
France is experiencing a double crisis, says the Financial Times:
“Its fiscal and political troubles are feeding each other. Government paralysis and France's inability to rein in public borrowing are sapping business and consumer confidence, eroding the country's standing in the EU and destroying what is left of President Emmanuel Macron's political legacy. ... There is a lack of fiscal seriousness across much of France's political class. Bayrou's truth-telling is laudable although to many it looks like grandstanding to support his presidential ambitions. Ultimately, it is Macron who is responsible for seven years of fiscal ill-discipline, crises notwithstanding, and for plunging France into its current political mess with last year's snap elections.”
Time for the next leap into the unknown?
L'Opinion has little hope that the outcome will be positive:
“A year has passed and two prime ministers have fallen - Barnier in December and Bayrou most likely today. Back to square one with the same unsolvable equation. ... Whatever the profile of the future prime minister, he or she seems doomed to perform the same balancing act between the same left-right divide that we thought was a thing of the past before Emmanuel Macron revived it. ... In the quest to achieve an elusive majority, the head of state wants to buy time, but he has none left. How long will he hold out before taking another leap into the unknown by dissolving the National Assembly a second time?”
A left-wing PM as Macron's last chance
Macron needs to finally take the left into account, advises the Frankfurter Rundschau:
“Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure has offered his services. He would stop the government's austerity budget, he would reverse the planned cancellation of two public holidays, he wants to tax the 'super-rich' more heavily instead. And he would shelve Macron's controversial pension reform. Macron's economic course would be in tatters. But at least by quickly nominating a left-wing prime minister he could ensure that the blockades and protests come to nothing. This argument carries weight for Macron: he can't be sure that he would survive yet another wave of protests and riots politically. The head of state is therefore faced with the question of whether he would rather save himself or his pension reform. Saving both does not seem possible.”
Learn from Italy
Les Echos draws four lessons from Italy's positive experiences:
“The first concerns the need to carry out large-scale and politically costly structural reforms. ... The second is the need to continue these efforts in the long term, even when there is a change of government. ... Meloni has also done her bit by renouncing or significantly amending a number of her election promises. ... The third lesson is an enduring resistance to the 'whatever it takes' approach, even at the risk of unpopularity. ... And the last lesson is the most important: all these efforts were made under pressure from Europe. ... Italy had to sacrifice its sovereignty in order to be saved. This is something Paris should also consider.”
Two stabilising factors
Former EU Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni is not overly concerned, not least because of the country's robust economic growth. He writes in La Repubblica:
“The crisis of the majority in parliament and the crisis in public finances are intertwined and threaten to reinforce each other. It will not be easy to resolve this interdependence and avoid an institutional crisis, although the relatively favourable growth trend will mitigate the economic impact: France may have a public finance crisis, but it is growing faster than Italy. There is also an institutional mechanism that allows French governments to survive without the direct confidence of parliament. Hence there is no financial abyss on the horizon, but rather a state of continuing uncertainty.”
Europe's politicians in crisis
France's crisis is more political than economic and is not unique in Europe, comments De Volkskrant:
“As in other countries, the major centre-left and centre-right parties have lost their influence over the population. Macron's attempt to mobilise the centre with a new movement has utterly failed, while the extremes on the flanks have gained strength. ... Above all, however, Macron's political decline highlights the crisis of European decision-makers. The (geo-)political and economic problems are getting bigger and bigger while the political significance of the established order is diminishing.”