Energy crisis: Transnistrian economy facing collapse?
Transnistria, the unrecognised breakaway region of Moldova, has once again been left with barely any gas or electricity. Russia is having major difficulties paying for natural gas deliveries from Moldova to Transnistria now that payments previously processed via Dubai and Hungary have come to a standstill as a result of sanctions. Will the energy crisis force the pro-Russian separatist region to reach an agreement with Chişinău after 34 years of de facto independence?
100 percent dependent on Chișinău
Transnistria's economy has lost its basis, the Romanian service of Deutsche Welle explains:
“The separatist regime in Tiraspol simply no longer has any solutions to offer. The enclave's economy is collapsing. ... Since Soviet times, the Transnistrian leadership has relied on two things: free gas from Russia and smuggling via Ukraine. Now the gas is no longer supplied for free and Ukrainian tanks have sealed off the border since the first day of Russia's war of aggression (for fear of an attack on Odessa being carried out using Russian troops illegally stationed in Transnistria). So the smuggling corridors are also closed. In economic terms, Transnistria is therefore 100 percent dependent on Chișinău.”
It's all in Sheriff's hands now
What happens next will depend largely on Viktor Gușan, who through his holding company Sheriff effectively controls Transnistria's economy, Ukrainian author Serhij Sydorenko writes in Contributors:
“Either he helps Russia to maintain its sphere of influence in Transnistria, which is currently headed for disaster - in which case he may end up losing everything. Or 'the Sheriff' could reach an agreement with Chișinău whereby he loses some of his illegally privatised properties but retains part of his empire, which would then become a respected and legal business entity in a reunified Republic of Moldova heading for EU accession. If Gușan gets involved in this way, the chances of a peaceful reintegration of Transnistria into the Republic of Moldova will increase. Even if the Kremlin does not like it.”