Is Russia poised to attack Baltic states?
Last Friday, Estonian border guards reported sightings of several heavily armed soldiers without insignia in the Saatse Boot area, where the road to the village of Saatse runs through Russian territory for one kilometre. The Estonian authorities closed the road as a precautionary measure. The incident has reignited the debate over whether the Baltic states are under threat.
As unlikely as invasion of Ukraine
Political scientist Sergei Medvedev writes in a Facebook post that an attack is a real possibility since Moscow is demonstrably capable of irrational action:
“The idea of Russia attacking Nato may seem absurd today, but an attack on Ukraine seemed just as absurd four years ago. Russia's most important trump cards are mobilisation, unpredictability, irrationality, hybridity and a compliant society. In other words, stupidity and courage - or rather the willingness to die and take any risk. Nato has nothing to counter this. I see nothing that could stop Russia from attacking one of the Baltic countries or Poland - it risks nothing at all by doing so, so why not give it a try?”
Europe's weaknesses lie elsewhere
This is not the time for either alarmism or defeatism, journalist Edward Lucas warns in Eesti Päevaleht:
“Russia has intensified its attacks on the infrastructure of the Baltic Sea and the surrounding countries, which, however, remain below the threshold of military force. Horror stories are appearing in the media. ... If Russia is indeed planning a serious provocation against Estonia, would it really start like this? I doubt it. Estonia is armed to the teeth, it has the strong backing of powerful Nato allies and is ready to defend itself. I find the weak defence capabilities and defeatist mood in other European countries far more worrying.”
Old-school psychological warfare
Latvijas Avīze analyses the sudden appearance of a group of armed and camouflaged Russian personnel in the Saatse Boot area on the Estonian border:
“Clearly this is a case of so-called psychological warfare. At a time when unidentified drones are suddenly turning up in the vicinity of important objects in European cities such as airports (but everyone knows who's behind that) and there have been various acts of sabotage and the like, the idea of 'little green men' could be considered a rather outdated, but nowhere has it been mentioned that it has been written off. However Russia's tactic of acting as if it has nothing to do with these incidents and nothing unusual has happened remains the same as ever.”
Swift action needed to eliminate sources of danger
After the Saatse Boot incident, Postimees says the state must take swift action to boost Estonia's security:
“The Estonian authorities have been aware for some time of the need to build a bypass road as an alternative. ... Interior Minister Igor Taro says the road should be built more quickly and the usual environmental impact assessment should be dispensed with. Saatse is not the only threat. Other sources of danger must also be eliminated. We could follow the same course of action as when we severed our connection to the Russian electricity grid. And we must also tackle the issue of the Russian shadow fleet and the propagandists of our eastern neighbour.”