Meeting called off: what next for Ukraine?
The plans for a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have apparently been shelved. The US President said he didn't want a "wasted meeting" after Moscow reportedly insisted on sticking to its demands, rejecting Trump's push for the freezing of the current front line which is backed by Kyiv.
Peace just a mirage for now
Neatkarīgā looks at why the prospect of a meeting has collapsed for the time being:
“Putin offered Trump another meeting. ... Trump agreed, but on the condition that the foreign ministers of both countries would not only agree on the agenda in advance, but also on the document on the cessation of hostilities and the terms of the ceasefire, which could then be signed at this meeting. It can already be said with a high degree of probability that reaching a consensus on such a document will not be possible because nothing (apart from Putin's recent phone call to Trump) indicates that Putin would be prepared to deviate from his conditions. ... So it's clear that peace in Ukraine is nothing but a mirage for the time being.”
Situation different with Putin
Trump wants to use the same approach with which he was recently successful, Der Standard surmises:
“He is only calling for a ceasefire along the current front line, he has said. This should be agreed upon first, then everything else can be negotiated later. Because this was the recipe for success in Gaza, where Trump actually secured a ceasefire and the release of hostages by putting pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas via the Arab states. Apparently here, too, he wants to exert pressure on an ally, this time not Israel but Ukraine. However, the situation is of a completely different nature because the aggressor Russia is not as weak as Hamas, and there is no one far and wide who could successfully exert pressure on Putin.”
Trump's belief in the Kremlin has its limits
Sooner or later Trump will have to exert real pressure on Putin, writes political scientist Serhiy Taran in a Telegram post picked up by Espreso:
“The longer Trump believes in miraculous meetings with Putin, the sooner 'Biden's war' will become 'Trump's war'. So I don't think this belief will last forever. Every time Trump gets results that contradict his own expectations he will be forced to think about alternatives to soft diplomacy. However, this rethinking process is likely to take longer than we would like.”
Time to make use of the frozen assets!
Seizing the frozen assets would make the war more expensive for Russia, Aamulehti obseves:
“Of course, this would violate international property law. But Russia's unjustified attack on another country and its attempt to change recognised national borders through war also violate international law. By seizing Russian assets, the EU would show Russia that it is serious about boosting the defence of Ukraine and Europe. The seizure would make the war of aggression almost twice as expensive for Russia, accelerating the collapse of the Russian war economy and bring the war to an end.”