War in Ukraine: what is driving the negotiations?
Discussions about the future of Ukraine continue in spite of the Witkoff scandal. On Sunday a Ukrainian delegation met US representatives in Florida, and this week US negotiators are flying to Moscow with the West's proposals to end the war. Europe's press points to the factors hindering and propelling the peace process.
War-weariness in the air
The Tages-Anzeiger concludes that neither side has anything more to gain from the war:
“It has already dragged on for almost four years, and will soon exceed the duration of the First World War. Who could ever have imagined such a thing? War weariness is in the air. The dead, the maimed, the impoverished. The fact that Trump hates this war because he hates losing money may turn out to be an advantage. He wants it to end at any cost. But there's another factor that may well be decisive: both the Ukrainians and Russians are finally seeing that there is nothing left for them to gain.”
Trump needs lower prices on global market
The US president's peace efforts are at least partly driven by his desire to cut the cost of living in his own country, Eco suspects:
“The surge in inflation in the post-pandemic years played a key role in Biden's defeat and Trump's victory. The cost of living problem continues and was decisive in the Democratic Party's recent victories in the [New Jersey and] New York elections. An end to the conflict in Ukraine would bring Russian oil and natural gas as well as Ukrainian grain and fertilisers back onto the international market, causing prices to fall and inflation to ease.”
Tap into those Russian billions
The EU still has a major trump card in its hand, the Financial Times points out, namely:
“... its control of the bulk of Russian central bank assets frozen since 2022. ... Recently, it has been held hostage by Belgium, where most of the assets are held, which fears being on the hook if Russia is one day able to recoup the money. The EU's instinct to uphold international law is well-founded. With not just Russia but now the Trump administration trampling on international norms, however, it has to consider extraordinary steps to support Ukraine and its own security.”
Europe's stubbornness is counterproductive
Naftemporiki sees Trump's peace plan as a pragmatic solution and criticises the Europeans' insistence on upholding principles:
“To invoke the principle of territorial integrity and state sovereignty in Ukraine while flouting that same principle in most other cases is simply hypocritical. Just look at Cyprus [where the north is occupied by Turkey]. The 'orange madman' and the 'paranoid dictator in the Kremlin' are far more level-headed than the uncontrolled Europeans when it comes to weighing up their interests, the risks and the balance of power. The current draft forms the basis for a new treaty on long-term security and stability between Europe, Russia and the US.”
Putin won't sign a deal with Zelensky
The Kremlin boss will keep finding reasons to oppose a deal, fears the Tages-Anzeiger:
“The 28-point plan has once again made clear how confident about his own cause Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin is. Where is the pressure needed to finally get Putin on board? Paradoxically, he could ultimately cause an agreement to fail precisely because Zelensky signs it. Putin has denied Zelensky's legitimacy as leader of Ukraine and only allowed him to participate in negotiations as an advisor. And he refuses to sign an agreement bearing Zelensky's signature as president.”
Kremlin's power would crumble in peacetime
The New Times advocates a long-term perspective:
“If the West is to expect success in building a peaceful world, the Russians must be separated from Putin, and Russian society from the state. ... But undoubtedly, the dying must stop first. The hardening and brutalisation must gradually come to an end. This is not good from Putin's perspective. And that is why any efforts directed at coordinating a peace plan make sense. The Kremlin will consider this a victory. But a state of peace will already undermine Putin's system, which is based on the industrial generation of chaos and crises.”
Washington will blame Europe
Dagens Nyheter finds it difficult to believe in a peaceful outcome:
“Putin is not interested in a sovereign Ukraine. Ukrainians have no intention of living on their knees. Rubio may be able to help Kyiv and the rest of Europe buy some time. But we must be clear that it is probably only a matter of time before Donald Trump blames us for all the failed 'peace efforts' and pulls out.”
Trump wants to defuse the situation on the home front
For Maszol, Trump's peace efforts are driven more by domestic motives:
“Trump needs a spectacular and rapid international success, because things are getting worse and worse at home. The Maga camp is increasingly outraged and divided, Trump's popularity has hit rock bottom, and if he doesn't do something quickly it will sink even lower. He needs to make a big move fast. At the moment he has two options: attack Venezuela or dictate peace in Ukraine. If he attacks Venezuela, the Maga base will become even angrier. ... Instead of a highly unpopular war the president says he would rather have peace in Ukraine.”
Beijing will have its say too
Monday's phone call between the presidents of China and the US is a sign that Ukraine is increasingly becoming a pawn in a bigger game, La Stampa notes:
“The new draft agreements between Washington and Kyiv, Moscow's reactions and above all the phone call between Xi and Trump show that the conflict is now part of the global competition to define power relations and spheres of influence. The phone call was not just a formal gesture but a crucial strategic move aimed at signalling intentions and red lines at a potentially critical moment in the war in Ukraine. ... The phone call also suggests a broader message: world power is increasingly concentrated on the United States, China and Russia.”
Between a rock and a hard place
Ukraine is now faced with a choice between two bad options, writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
“Either it gives in to Trump's blatant blackmail, which has weakened Kyiv's negotiating position vis-à-vis Moscow with crazy concessions and demands, or it is left in an even worse military and political situation in which Trump withdraws the last vestiges of support from an 'ungrateful' Ukraine. Faced with a choice between a rock and a hard place, Kyiv has decided to kowtow to Trump, which is also what the Europeans advise, as they themselves are dependent on US support in their confrontation with Putin.”