Protests in Iran: regime change on the cards?
In Iran, people have been protesting for more than a week, and the regime is cracking down hard. According to activists, at least 35 people have died and around 1,200 have been arrested. Triggered by a sharp drop in the value of the local currency, which drove angry traders onto the streets, the protests have since spread across the country and become political demonstrations.
The Ayatollahs are right to be nervous
Strikes in the bazaars put the regime under serious pressure, writes the taz:
“Because in the past this has been a warning signal: from the tobacco movement in 1891 to the revolution in 1979, bazaars have always been a catalyst for political upheaval. The regime attempted to protect itself from this and secure loyalty in the bazaars by awarding licences and official posts. With a few exceptions, the bazaars have since been regarded as a conservative pillar of the system. And they remained silent while others protested. These strikes now cast doubt on the legitimacy of that system.”
No revolts
Polityka dampens any hopes of a regime change:
“The current unrest is not on the same scale as the protests in 2009 or those that followed. ... No leaders can be identified. And ultimately, the third element of a revolution is missing: at least up to now, there are no visible 'cracks' in the regime. ... In previous centuries, uprisings in the bazaars frequently determined the future of Iran, formerly Persia. However, this was only the case when these uprisings were followed by revolts in large companies and factories, particularly in the oil sector, which is crucial to the regime's financial stability – and there is currently no sign of this.”
Terror and nuclear programmes instead of water
Phileleftheros describes the background to the protests:
“A proud people with a long history in a country with vast natural resources and other riches are living in poverty and with almost no water under a regime that spends vast sums on nuclear programmes, ballistic missiles and financing terrorist organisations. ... Recently, Iranians learned that Tehran – home to ten million people, or fifteen million if you include the suburbs – may have to 'move' because the state is unable to supply it with water. All the attention and resources have been focused on other things: weapons and rhetoric about the destruction of Israel.”